Coffee and a Mike John Comiskey #1097
Mar 22, 2025
John Comiskey, the owner of the insightful Substack newsletter Reversed Engineering Finance, discusses the impending FHA mortgage crisis and alarming delinquency rates. He explores the complexities of mortgage technology and the roles of Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae in shaping the lending landscape. The conversation dives into the challenges of loan modifications and the ethical implications of government relief programs, raising critical questions about financial accountability and the future of the housing market.
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Comiskey's Background
- John Comiskey's background is in mortgage technology, designing systems for loan origination and servicing.
- He transitioned to financial research, focusing on the mechanics of the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve.
Data Discovery
- Ginnie Mae publishes loan-level performance data monthly on 6.8 million FHA loans.
- This data revealed high re-default rates on modified loans, prompting further investigation.
Loan Mechanics
- Lenders sell loans to recover funds, packaging them into mortgage-backed securities sold to investors like banks and 401ks.
- FHA insures these loans, covering losses and setting lending and loss mitigation standards.