Macro Mondays Macro Mondays #67 - How to position for the cutting season?
Sep 23, 2024
The hosts dive into positioning strategies amid a recent rate cut, emphasizing the interplay between inflation and unemployment. They highlight the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on financial markets. A unique approach to earning yields on gold and silver is discussed, alongside insights on economic strategies. Explore how banking practices like 'window dressing' affect market liquidity, and get actionable investment strategies based on macro regime models and current market trends.
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50 Basis Point Cut Interpretation
- A 50-basis-point interest rate cut can be good or bad, depending on the economic context.
- It's good unless the economy is collapsing, as it signals aggressive support.
Misleading US Job Market Data
- The US job market data might be misleading due to an increase in part-time and multiple job holders.
- This is likely driven by the need to cope with inflation, not genuine job growth.
Non-Farm Payroll Data Revisions
- US non-farm payroll data revisions might be due to difficulties in accurately measuring immigrant employment.
- Surveys don't capture uninsured workers, leading to underestimation.