The Diff A Sense of History
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Sep 22, 2025 Byrne Hobart dives into the fascinating intersections of history and technology. He reflects on how few legacy tech firms falter during the AI boom, contrasting it with swift industry shifts of the past. There's intriguing analysis on H-1B policies and the implications of skilled immigration. The episode also covers Meta's new power trading venture as a hedge against AI risks and the dynamics of TikTok's US divestiture. Finally, insights on the merging of crypto-focused companies highlight the evolving landscape in tech.
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Current AI Cycle Keeps Old Winners
- Major tech transitions usually leave many companies behind, but the current AI cycle mostly preserves previous winners with some new entrants like NVIDIA and OpenAI.
- This persistence is unusual because past shifts rapidly winnowed incumbents into obsolescence.
VC Incentives Speed Winner-Take-All
- Venture capital incentives push startups to spend aggressively because a fund's returns often depend on a single winner emerging.
- That pressure accelerates winner-take-all dynamics and reduces efficiency across competing firms.
History Shapes Tech Leadership
- Executives obsess about history because past technological shifts provide useful analogies and risk awareness for strategic decisions.
- Industries with long histories compound knowledge, so historically aware leaders tilt toward survival and better judgment.
