We're excited to share today's guest's take on the markets – especially following his April 2020 appearance on the show when the market was clawing its way back up from its March 23 bottom.
This week, Dan welcomes back Mitchel Krause to Stansberry Investor Hour. Mitchel is the managing principal, chief commercial officer, and founder of Other Side Asset Management, an investment firm focused on capital preservation, risk management, and transparency. A 20-plus-year veteran of the financial services industry, he has served as first vice president at Stifel and Ryan Beck & Co.
Mitchel was last on the show in April 2020... not long before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitted the central bank had "crossed a lot of red lines" with its aggressive emergency measures during the pandemic. Today, Mitchel says, "Every time I look, the data is different and it looks worse"... from bubbles popping in crypto, housing, equities, and U.S. Treasurys to the negative wealth effects of consumer spending tanking and inventories rising. And he's wondering just what the Fed might do next...
You're seeing it in all the data, and yet Wall Street's estimates haven't come down nearly enough for Q4 or Q1 of next year. So this will continue for probably the next three-plus quarters. [...]
We're probably closer to still a top than watching this all bottom out. The question becomes what red lines are crossed in order to try to possibly save this. That's the risk every central banker essentially tries to plan something... We'll pivot if we need to pivot from our positions.
Mitchel also believes we're currently in a "disinflationary investing regime." He says you should analyze "how the markets are looking at things" rather than relying on backward-looking metrics like the Fed-favorite Consumer Price Index. And instead of readily believing the headlines, he urges listeners to demand more evidence, more data, and do their own research.
Furthermore, Mitchel says you should "prepare yourself for another two or three quarters of what you've just seen" and make capital preservation your No. 1 goal right now. He also warns against falling into the trap of trying to time the market bottom. Lastly, Dan picks Mitchel's brain about positioning, especially since he "has never talked to anyone holding 70%-plus cash."
