Wall Street Wildlife Investing Podcast E115: Are We All Gamblers Now? + Why Market Valuations (P/E) Are Fake
π° The Degeneracy Trap β Is the economy forcing investors into a casino mindset? We dissect the viral debate on "financial nihilism" and why the pressure to get rich quick is destroying portfolios.
πͺ Skills vs Luck β The antidote to social media envy. Why compounding your skillset is the only reliable hedge against inflation, stagnant wages, and the housing crisis.
π The P/E Ratio Myth β Why looking at historical P/E ratios might be costing you money. We break down how accounting rule changes and stock-based comp have distorted the "market is overvalued" narrative.
β‘ Selling Winners? β Luke explains the painful but necessary decision to trim his Axon position. A deep dive into Price-to-Gross-Profit reveals why a 32x multiple signaled it was time to take chips off the table.
π Oddity: The New King of the Jungle β Krzysztof unveils his latest portfolio addition. See how combining patience, technical analysis, and fundamental strength led to the perfect entry point.
π Options Mistakes & Lessons β We strip back the ego and discuss our recent losses with Cipher and Quantum Computing. Learn why paying too much for volatility or misjudging the clock can zero out your returns.
π The Alpha Strategy β A sneak peek into the upcoming Patreon Options Course. Krzysztof reveals advanced strategies, including how to sell calls against purchased options to lower your cost basis.
π Novo Nordisk's Pivot β The community portfolio's top pick is up 34%, but the run might just be starting. We discuss the massive implications of weight-loss drugs moving from injections to oral pills.
Sources:
Degeneracy Post and Response:
https://x.com/systematicls/status/2004900241745883205
https://x.com/JaredKubin/status/2006028297688297475
The Broken Yardstick, why historical Price-to-Earnings (P/E) comparisons are fundamentally flawed:
https://manuinvests.substack.com/p/the-broken-yardstick-why-your-historic
Segments:
00:00 Introduction: Patience vs Degeneracy
02:11 Krzysztof's Options Course Marathon
03:30 Ski Season Begins & One Battle After Another
07:22 Degeneracy Debate: Are We Becoming Gamblers?
11:47 The Case for Compounding Skills
16:50 Rejecting Social Media Comparison Culture
20:23 Asset Bubbles & Historical Context
24:25 PE Ratios: Why Historical Comparisons Fail
34:38 Axon Enterprise Valuation Analysis
42:16 Oddity: Monkey's Latest Addition
50:20 Combining Fundamentals with Technicals
51:59 Options Timing: The Critical Variable
56:10 Cipher Options Error & Strategy Missed
01:00:47 Options Course Beta Testing Announcement
01:03:23 Novo Nordisk & Oral Weight Loss Drugs
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Disclosure: Wall Street Wildlife hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation
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Keywords
Investing Psychology, Financial Nihilism, Stock Market Gambling, Axon Enterprise Stock Analysis, ODD Stock, Oddity Tech, Novo Nordisk Stock, PE Ratio Explained, Is the Market Overvalued, Options Trading Mistakes, Technical Analysis Strategy, Compounding Wealth, Wall Street Wildlife