NBA Bonus Pod - Season Win Total Preview

Jul 17, 2025

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Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers talk all things NBA.

📉 Utah Jazz Over 18.5: Historically, teams with sub-19 win totals go over (7–0); Mack projects 24.5 wins.

🧓 Phoenix Suns Under 31.5: Losses of Beal and Durant, and a negative age curve led Mack to project 27 wins.

🧠 Toronto Raptors Over 35.5: Brandon Ingram's addition and an underrated core led Mack to declare this his best bet.

🔥 San Antonio Spurs Over 42.5: With Fox and Wemby together, Mack sees a 4-point net rating boost—his boldest pick.

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks Under 44.5: Aging roster and lack of support for Giannis pushed Mack to declare it his best under bet.

🧨 Cleveland Cavaliers Over 55.5: Top-three age-aligned stars and high net rating make them Mack’s favorite high-end over.

🎯 Houston Rockets Over 55.5: Kevin Durant’s addition boosts win projection to nearly 58; strong depth and motivation.

⚠️ Boston Celtics Under 44.5: Loss of Tatum, net rating decline, and lack of a center project only 38.6 wins.

💤 Oklahoma City Thunder Under 62.5: Only four teams ever had higher totals; eight of eleven 60+ win teams went under.

📈 Chicago Bulls Over 32.5: Despite losing names, young pieces like Giddey and White elevate their projection to 37.5.

Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Mack calls this total historically low, noting all previous teams with sub-19 win totals went over. He projects a minimum of 24.5 wins despite Utah's trades of Clarkson and Sexton.
Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Munaf likes the mix of veterans (McCollum, Middleton, Smart) and young players (Cam Whitmore, Clayton Jr.). He predicts 23–25 wins.
Brooklyn Nets (21.5 wins): Despite a lean roster, Mack expects their East competition to be weak enough to go over. Projected net rating yields 27 wins.
Charlotte Hornets (25.5 wins): Mack sees strong age-curve improvement from Ball, Miller, and Bridges. LaMelo's health remains the biggest question.
Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins): Loss of Durant and Beal and age-related decline lead Mack to project 27 wins and call this his best “anti-fun” under.
New Orleans Pelicans (32.5 wins): Munaf bets under due to Zion's fragility and lack of depth. Mack slightly disagrees, projecting 34 wins and a lean over.
Chicago Bulls (32.5 wins): Despite shedding DeRozan and LaVine, Mack sees internal growth and new talent (Giddey, Bouzelis) pushing them near 37.5 wins.
San Antonio Spurs (42.5 wins): Mack projects a 4-point value gain from Fox-Wemby synergy. Predicts 47 wins; names this among his top overs.
Toronto Raptors (35.5 wins): Brandon Ingram's arrival and net rating trajectory boost this team’s projection above market expectations. Mack's top Eastern Conference over.
Milwaukee Bucks (44.5 wins): Aged core, bad defense, and poor depth led Mack to confidently declare under—his top fade of the season.

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