Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: You can’t handle the truth!
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Nov 7, 2025 Joseph Lupton, an economist at J.P. Morgan, shares keen insights on the precarious state of the U.S. labor market amidst a potential shutdown. He discusses the resilience of global growth signals, contrasting mixed U.S. labor indicators with stronger performances abroad. Delving into the implications of evolving tariff laws, Lupton highlights risks to trade policy and Fed independence. The conversation explores whether tech-driven investments will truly translate to job growth, all while navigating the murky waters of a potential recession.
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Payroll Miss And A Wedding
- Bruce Kasman jokes he's sad about missing the monthly payroll report but happy his son is getting married the next day.
- The personal moment lightens the discussion and frames the show's tone.
Global Resilience Despite U.S. Labor Uncertainty
- Global data show resilience driven by stronger PMIs and Asia/Europe activity rather than clear U.S. labor strength.
- This reduces some downside tail risk but keeps substantial uncertainty around U.S. growth.
Labor Signals Keep Downside Risk Elevated
- Joe Lupton keeps a baseline of resilience but assigns a 30–40% chance of a U.S. downturn driven by soft labor indicators.
- He flags rising challenger layoffs and weak job-posting metrics as warning signs.