Cleaning Up: Leadership in an Age of Climate Change

Can Europe Survive the Transition To Renewables? Ep201: Nikos Tsafos

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Mar 19, 2025

Nikos Tsafos, Greece’s Deputy Minister of Energy, dives into Europe's challenging energy transition amidst global tensions. He discusses the implications of high energy prices on climate goals and critiques the EU's reliance on US LNG and Chinese clean tech. With Europe's carbon emissions on the rise, he emphasizes the need for tailored decarbonization targets to enhance efficiency. Tsafos also explores Greece's successful shift from coal to renewables, stressing the importance of strategic investments in modern energy infrastructure.

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INSIGHT

Energy Prices in Europe

High energy prices in Europe are primarily due to the sharp decline of Russian gas, not the transition to renewables.
Cheap gas would mean cheap electricity, as gas is the marginal fuel setting electricity prices.

ANECDOTE

Greek Electricity Price Analysis

Nikos Tsafos analyzed Greek electricity prices and found a strong correlation between high gas usage and high electricity prices.
This correlation holds regardless of renewable energy penetration, suggesting gas prices are the main driver.

INSIGHT

Geopolitics and European Energy

Europe faces a complex geopolitical landscape regarding energy, with challenges related to Russia, the US, and Qatar.
A more strategic approach to gas sourcing and diversification is needed within the EU.

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How does Europe get cheap energy again? Are climate goals at odds with the need to remain economically competitive? Are we about to see an empowered and emboldened Europe, ready to take on China and the US?

Barely five years into the 2020s, this decade is already shaping up to be one of the most turbulent since the Second World War. As we record this episode, the US has just slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting swift retaliation from Europe and Canada.

The energy landscape is just as volatile. While the US seems set on spending the next four years as a semi-rogue petrostate—acting as if climate change were an afterthought—China is seizing the moment. It’s doubling down on EVs and electrification at home, tightening its grip on clean energy supply chains, and dominating global exports of solar panels, batteries, EVs, wind turbines, and even cables. In doing so, Beijing is cementing its status as the world’s premier electro-state.

This leaves Europe at a crossroads. How does the EU tackle sky-high energy prices while reducing its reliance on US LNG and Chinese clean tech? Can it craft a compelling narrative to counter the rising tide of populism that’s circling ever closer to the Berlaymont building in Brussels?

To help us unpack these critical questions, we’re joined by Nikos Tsafos, Greece’s recently promoted Deputy Energy Minister. His portfolio spans energy and emissions, and he collaborates with policymakers across transport and industry—not just in Greece, but throughout the EU.

Thank you to Nikos Tsafos for providing the graphs showing Greece’s energy transition.

Leadership Circle:

Cleaning Up is supported by the Leadership Circle, and its founding members: Actis, Alcazar Energy, Davidson Kempner, EcoPragma Capital, EDP of Portugal, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information on the Leadership Circle, please visit https://www.cleaningup.live.

Links:

Nikos Tsafos' Website: https://nikostsafos.com
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ letter to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen regarding the EU energy market: https://www.primeminister.gr/en/2024/09/13/34887
Energy System of Greece: https://www.iea.org/countries/greece
Yanis Varoufakis: Power, Markets & Power Markets - Ep104: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLbm8fg08hc
Audioblog 14: Generative AI – The Power and the Glory: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwZ2iNh133A