China's Dominance of the EV Battery Metal Supply Chain
Oct 18, 2023
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Henry Sanderson, an executive editor at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, joins the podcast to discuss China's dominance in the EV battery metal supply chain. They talk about recent mining deals in countries like Chile, Morocco, and Zimbabwe, and the implications for G7 countries. The podcast also explores the challenges of reducing US reliance on China for battery production and discusses the dynamics between Western and Chinese sectors in Africa.
China dominates 90% of the global market for critical minerals, posing challenges for Western countries in reducing dependence on China for the supply chain of battery metals.
Decoupling from China in the battery metal supply chain is impractical and undesirable, as Western governments must focus on innovation and leveling the playing field to overcome China's dominance.
China's investments in lithium processing plants around the world face challenges from countries increasing control over production and promoting local processing, creating uncertainty for China and opportunities for Western countries to compete.
Deep dives
The Dominance of China in the Global Market for Critical Minerals
China currently dominates about 90% of the global market for critical minerals, causing concern in Washington. Chinese companies are seen as bad for Africa due to environmental record, human rights violations, and debt burdens. However, there is a push for value-added presence of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in the supply chain of critical minerals, with Jikamin launching a germanium industry to meet Europe and the US demand. The DRC aims to attract more actors to the mining sector while still welcoming Chinese companies. Saudi Arabia is also entering the business of critical minerals in the DRC.
Impact of Low Prices on Battery Metal Sector
Battery metal prices, such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel, have been weak due to a slowdown in demand and increased supply. This poses challenges for Western countries in reducing dependence on China for the supply chain. Western companies find it difficult to raise financing for new projects, while Chinese companies continue to expand and dominate the market. Low prices benefit Chinese state-owned companies that have strategic interests, while Western countries struggle to compete. The geopolitical impact includes winners and losers, with private Western companies facing difficulties, the Congolese government seeing lower revenue, and Chinese state-owned companies stockpiling critical minerals.
The Challenge of Decoupling from China in the Battery Metal Sector
Decoupling from China in the battery metal supply chain is impractical and undesirable due to China's dominance in critical segments of the supply chain. Western governments often underestimate China's presence and deep integration with the supply chain. Private sector companies prioritize their own interests and are unlikely to cut ties with China. Political rhetoric about decoupling does not align with the reality on the ground. Efforts to attract Western companies to secure critical minerals have faced challenges due to low prices and the difficulty of competing with China. Western governments must focus on innovation, competitive pricing, and leveling the playing field to overcome the challenges posed by China's dominance in the battery metal sector.
The Role of China in the EV Supply Chain
Lawmakers in the United States are considering skipping the electric vehicle (EV) generation and waiting for an alternative technology that doesn't involve China. However, the sales of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are currently twice the pace of electric cars in the US. The dynamic of geopolitics and concerns about the environmental impact of mining and refining make it unlikely that the US and European countries will take over the dirty and violent aspects of the EV supply chain from China. Despite political rhetoric, there is a gap between what the politicians say and what the private sector is willing to do regarding decoupling from China and cutting China out of the supply chain.
Lithium Processing and Global South Countries' Control
China has been heavily investing in lithium processing plants around the world, including projects in Chile, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, and Morocco. However, some countries in the global south, like Mexico, are enacting measures to increase control over the production and processing of critical minerals, seeking to prevent the export of raw materials and promote local processing. This trend adds uncertainty to the lithium market and poses challenges for China, which relies on countries friendly with the US to secure raw materials for their processing industry. Western countries face challenges in building their own processing capabilities and offering value-add to developing countries, as China often has the technology and experience in this field. The ability to transform MOUs into concrete agreements and involve the private sector is crucial for the US to make progress in building upstream capability in lithium processing and compete with China's investments in the global south.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric oversaw the signing of a $233 million lithium deal with Chinese mining giant Tsingshan Holding Group, the latest investment that solidifies China's dominance of the fiercely contested EV battery metal supply chain.
In just the past few months alone, Chinese firms have moved quickly to lock up similar mining and processing deals in Morocco, Nigeria, Bolivia, and Zimbabwe, among other countries.
Henry Sanderson, executive editor at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, joins Eric & Geraud to discuss these latest deals and what the implications are for G7 countries that are looking to build alternate non-Chinese supply chains for critical resources.
SHOW NOTES:
Amazon: Volt Rush: The Winners and Losers in the Race to Go Green by Henry Sanderson: https://a.co/d/7kDJxds
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