Iran’s strikes on Israel: Why now and what's next?
Oct 2, 2024
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In this insightful discussion, Paul Adams, a diplomatic correspondent, and Parham Ghobadi, a BBC Persian reporter, dive into the recent missile attack by Iran on Israel. They dissect the motivations behind this aggression and the historical context of the hostilities. The duo analyzes how this situation affects Iran's internal politics and the complicated ties with Hezbollah. They also explore potential responses from Israel, highlighting the evolving military strategies and the regional implications of escalating tensions. A compelling look at a critical global issue!
Iran's recent missile attacks on Israel reflect a strategic shift in response to perceived humiliations and domestic pressures on its regime.
The escalating conflict is causing a humanitarian crisis, displacing civilians in Lebanon and complicating perceptions of Hezbollah's influence among the populace.
Deep dives
Escalation of Conflict in the Middle East
The recent escalation in the Middle East is highlighted by Iran's missile attacks on Israel, marking a significant shift in the ongoing conflict. This dangerous moment is characterized by an expanded regional involvement, with various actors like Hezbollah and the Houthis increasingly engaged. Unlike previous attacks which were perceived as performative, Iran's current actions seem to reflect a genuine shift towards causing tangible damage. Despite the intent to disrupt, the immediate impact has resulted in limited casualties, suggesting that while escalation is evident, its consequences thus far may not be as severe as anticipated.
Iran's Need for Retaliation
Iran's recent attack on Israel is fueled by a series of perceived humiliations and assassinations of key figures, notably the Hamas leader, which has pressured the Iranian regime to respond decisively. This pressure is compounded by domestic dissatisfaction, especially among hardliners, who criticize the government for inaction against Israel. The assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, a revered Hezbollah leader, further underscores Iran's struggles to maintain its influence and leverage in the region. As Iran grapples with the loss of significant allies, retaliation serves both to restore its credibility and reassert its position against Israel.
Impact on Civilians and Regional Dynamics
The ongoing conflict has led to a significant humanitarian crisis, displacing approximately one million civilians in Lebanon and impacting many more in Israel. While Israeli civilians have sought safety away from the northern border, Lebanese civilians face the brunt of destruction from Israeli military operations aimed at dismantling Hezbollah's capabilities. Hezbollah's deep entrenchment in Lebanese society complicates perceptions, often eliciting sympathy during Israeli attacks despite widespread resentment towards the group's influence. This intricate dynamic creates a volatile environment where civilian lives are heavily affected, raising concerns about the long-term consequences of the current hostilities.
Following Iran’s missile attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed retaliation. President Biden is telling the Israeli leadership that any attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is off limits. So, how will Israel respond to the 180 missiles that Iran fired across its border? And what has the reaction been in Iran?
On this episode of the The Global Story, Azadeh Moshiri is joined by our Diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams and BBC Persian reporter Parham Ghobadi. They explore why Iran has chosen this moment to attack Israel and what Benjamin Netanyahu might do in response.
The Global Story brings you trusted insights from BBC journalists worldwide. We want your ideas, stories and experiences to help us understand and tell #TheGlobalStory. Email us at theglobalstory@bbc.com You can also message us or leave a voice note via WhatsApp on +44 330 123 9480.
Producers: Sergi Forcada Freixas and Eleanor Sly
Sound engineer: Hannah Montgomery
Assistant editor: Sergi Forcada Freixas
Senior news editor: Sara Wadeson
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