Upside Upside #44 - Cybercrime Up, UK Govt Investments Up, Nuclear Up, War... Down.
Jun 14, 2025
56:10
Upside - The *real* stories affecting European Venture.
This week Mads, Lomax and I discuss: AI cybercrime, UK govt investing in tech/AI, cheap energy (nuclear isn't), Tesla’s RoboFail, 996 and founder work-life balance, AI growth but is the revenue good? and the shock flip between private vs. public markets.
- 01:24 – Cyber-Security: Rising Threats
43 % of UK businesses hit by cyber-crime last year; avg. of 2,000 attacks/week in Q1 2025. - 02:07 – AI-Enabled Attacks & Geopolitical Impact
AI tools lower the barrier for sophisticated attacks by state-sponsored or rogue actors - new front in modern warfare by economic disruption. - 04:12 – Kinetic vs. Cyber Warfare
The mix of traditional (kinetic) and cyber fronts. - 07:20 – Government Spending Review: Big Picture
Rachel Reeves’s 3-year spending framework amid a weak UK economy: £120bn on infrastructure; £43bn for science & innovation; £2bn AI Action Plan. - 16:50 – Energy Landscape & Nuclear
The UK’s high industrial energy costs (6× US); sovereignty & intermittency issues; nuclear offers clean baseload and sovereignty but at what cost? - 19:21 – Fusion & Long-Term Energy Tech
Recent fusion advances (Tokamak West’s 22 min plasma) and Proxima Fusion’s €130 m Series A, but 20 yr horizon remains. - 25:51 – Tesla’s Robotaxi Roll-Out
Tesla’s delayed Austin launch (moved from June 12→22); cost comparison vs. Waymo. - 28:34 – Europe’s AV Landscape: The Brexit Dividend
Wayve’s UK partnerships (Nissan, Uber, spring 2026 trial at L4 autonomy) versus EU’s slower L2/3 regs. - 32:26 – Founder Work Ethic Debate
Heated talk around “996” & extreme hustle: Lomax quotes Paul Graham on youth vs. age advantages. - 37:00 – AI Revenue Growth & Sustainability
LLM businesses doubling revenue every 2 months; examples: Anysphere’s $500m ARR, Lovable’s €61m ARR; concerns around gross margins, churn & long-term profitability. - 46:14 – Private vs. Public Market Performance
First time in 25 yrs that private markets underperform public across 1/3/5/10 yr horizons (State Street report): “Magnificent 7” driving public returns. A shake-out & opportunity ahead as private seeks its illiquidity premium. - 52:00 – Notable Deals
- Multiverse (ES) – €189m Series B for LLM compression tech (95 % size reduction)
- Oxford Ionics → IonQ – $1bn+ acquisition of UK trapped-ion quantum spin-out
- 55:47 – Closing & Condolences
Dan sends thoughts to those affected by the Air India crash, and wraps up with thanks and next-week teasers.