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The Julia La Roche Show

#202 Steve Hanke: A Recession Is Still On The Way — What the Money Supply Tells Us About The Economy

Oct 15, 2024
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, shares insights on the looming recession, driven by shifts in money supply and inflation. He discusses China’s economic struggles and its global impact, emphasizing that monitoring money supply is more telling than mere interest rates. Hanke critiques economic data reliability, particularly job reports, and connects inflation trends to bond yields. He also analyzes the political landscape, contrasting subjective polling with objective prediction markets as the election approaches.
50:10

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Quick takeaways

  • Monitoring the money supply is essential for predicting economic downturns, as evidenced by the US contraction since mid-2022.
  • Economic disparities between regions like the US, China, and Europe highlight the need for tailored monetary policies to foster stability.

Deep dives

Monitoring Money Supply for Economic Insights

Understanding the money supply is crucial for anticipating economic trends and potential recessions. Observing changes in the money supply reveals that the US has experienced a contraction since mid-2022, historically leading to economic downturns. Similarly, China is struggling with slow growth in its money supply, which is significantly below its inflation target, contributing to fears of economic weakness. Both cases demonstrate that a close eye on money supply dynamics is essential to predict and respond to economic challenges.

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