Logan Mohtashami on recession signals and what they mean for housing
May 20, 2024
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Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami discusses recession signals impacting housing and mortgage rates. Topics include rent inflation, historical home prices during recessions, mortgage rates' influence on housing demand, analyzing rate changes on housing, affordability challenges for millennials, predicting recession impact on housing industry, and future trends in real estate based on labor market conditions.
Recession signals impact housing affordability through job loss concerns and market equilibrium.
Builders adapt to market conditions, leveraging low mortgage rates and housing demand for increased sales.
Deep dives
Impacts of Recession Signals on Housing Market Affordability
The podcast discusses the potential effects of recession signals on housing market affordability. The guest, lead analyst Logan Motoshami, addresses concerns about job loss recession and its impact on affordability. Despite wage growth slowing down and increased housing supply, which may improve affordability over time, the focus remains on the equilibrium between supply and demand during a recession. Examples from past recessions, such as the tech recession, are used to highlight varying impacts on housing prices and sales, emphasizing the complexity of market dynamics.
Builders' Market Strategy and Housing Industry Dynamics
The discussion delves into the strategies and dynamics of homebuilders in response to market conditions. The episode emphasizes how builders capitalize on low mortgage rates and housing demand to drive sales. With a focus on single-family and multifamily permits, the analysis showcases the builders' adaptability to changing market trends. Notably, the importance of completing construction projects and the impact on labor market conditions are highlighted as key factors influencing the housing industry.
Labor Market Trends and Potential Economic Shifts
Insights into labor market trends and their influence on potential economic shifts are explored in the podcast. The conversation centers on wage growth projections, job market softening, and their implications for the broader economy. With a focus on the Federal Reserve's response to labor market changes, there is anticipation of a shift in economic discussions based on key indicators like jobless claims and business investments. The discussion also touches on the significance of housing demand in relation to future economic outcomes, highlighting the intricate relationship between market dynamics and labor market conditions.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the recession signals we’re seeing in the economy and what they mean for housing and mortgage rates.
The HousingWire Daily podcast examines the most compelling articles reported across HW Media. Each morning, we provide our listeners with a deeper look into the stories coming across our newsrooms that are helping Move Markets Forward. Hosted and produced by the HW Media team.