Daniel Davis Deep Dive Trump & China: Who's Coming Out on Top? /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Alastair Crooke
Oct 30, 2025
Alastair Crooke, a geopolitical commentator and former diplomat, joins the discussion to delve into the complexities of US-China relations. He highlights China’s dominance in rare earth refining and its strategic significance. Crooke also critiques the implications of Trump's unpredictability on trade and explores Brazil's role in the soy market. He suggests that the US must rethink its approach to China, advocating for accommodation over confrontation, while linking current financial fragilities to broader geopolitical strategies.
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China's Rare-Earth Refining Dominance
- China controls roughly 70–100% of key rare-earth supply and 93% of refining capacity, giving it decisive leverage.
- This refining dominance makes rapid U.S. substitution costly and years away.
Rare-Earth Controls Were Reciprocal
- The rare-earth export controls were a tit-for-tat response to U.S. tech export curbs placed on Chinese entities.
- Any apparent easing likely involved reciprocal U.S. relaxations that benefit Chinese tech access.
AI Bet Creates U.S. Vulnerability
- The U.S. has heavily bet on AI as its economic future, concentrating valuations in a few firms.
- China could burst that bubble by producing superior, cheaper chips and undermining U.S. dominance.