20VC: GV's Tom Hulme on Why Investing in Foundation Models is like Investing in "Power Stations", The Conventional Wisdom in VC that is BS & Lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record, 255x on Robinhood and Making Billions on Uber
May 8, 2024
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Tom Hulme, Managing Partner of GV, shares insights on angel investing, VC wisdom, and successful strategies. Discusses 4 pillars of VC success, challenges conventional wisdom, and lessons from a 24x Angel Track Record. Emphasizes the importance of speed in startups, navigating remote work, and investing in foundation models like generative AI companies.
Successful angel investors learn from their biggest winners and mistakes, offering advice to new investors.
Venture capital success lies in understanding key components, categorizing investor types, and balancing founder support.
Challenging conventional wisdom in venture capital leads to reevaluating selling winners, fund returner mindsets, and predicting success accurately.
Deep dives
Different Types of Venture Capital Investors
Smart investors adding value and passive investors not interfering are appreciated. Conversely, investors claiming intelligence but hindering should be avoided. Understanding investor types is crucial for successful investments.
Personal Experiences Influence Business Mindset
Personal childhood experiences shape empathy, resilience, and caution in business. Overcoming challenges fosters empathy and caution in decision-making. Learning from past experiences guides interactions and decision-making approaches.
Challenges in Venture Capital Decision-Making
The podcast highlights the difficulty in accurately predicting business success. Evaluating feedback and adapting strategies based on market feedback is crucial. Valuing honest feedback and continuously learning are essential in the ever-changing venture capital landscape.
Approach to Foundation Model Investments
Considering the commoditization of technology, critical evaluation of foundation model investments is necessary. Identifying unique aspects like memory capabilities or agency incorporation can offer defensibility. Sustainable value generation criteria should guide investment decisions.
Investing in AI Businesses
Identifying businesses that can adapt and be happy with improvements, even if the model improves by 100x, is crucial. Many are investing in AI without considering the founders' experience in commercializing products. The shift towards application layer investments is highlighted, noting that only about 20% of value goes to incumbents.
Startup Strategies and Execution Speed
Speed of execution is highlighted as critical in startups, with the best founders focusing on efficiently answering questions and not aiming for perfection. The importance of getting feedback from the market early on and charging early adopters to validate value is emphasized. The discussion touches on the balance between naivety and insider knowledge when building companies and the need for founders to adapt and learn fast.
Tom Hulme is a Managing Partner of GV (Google Ventures), and leads the European team. Today, GV has over $10BN in AUM and Tom has led investments in Lemonade.com (IPO), Snyk, Secret Escapes, Blockchain.com, GoCardless, Blue Vision Labs (exited to Lyft), and Currency Cloud (exited to Visa). Prior to joining venture full-time, Tom was one of Europe's most successful angel investors with a 5x DPI track record and 20x+ TVPI.
In Today's Episode with Tom Hulme We Discuss:
1. Lessons from a 24x TVPI Angel Track Record:
What are Tom's biggest lessons from his biggest winners angel investing?
What are Tom's biggest takeaways from the 0's in his angel track record?
What is the biggest advice Tom would give to angel investors starting out today?
What are the single biggest mistakes Tom sees angel investors make today?
2. The Four Pillars of Venture Capital:
What does Tom believe are the four key components of being successful as a VC?
Why does Tom describe VC as "being a founder on anti-depressants"?
How does Tom categorise the three different types of investors that exist?
Sourcing, selecting, servicing: What is Tom best at and what is he worst at?
3. The Conventional Wisdom in Venture That is Not True:
Why does Tom believe it is BS that you should never sell your winners?
Why does Tom believe he has never had complete conviction in any of the companies he invests in?
Why does Tom believe the "everything has to be a fund returner mindset" is BS?
Why naivety doesn't lead to great founders? Why employees at rocketships are the best founders?
4. AI: Foundation Models, Generative AI, The Incumbents: Where Does the Value Go:
Does Tom believe there is money to be made investing in foundation models?
Why does Tom liken investing in foundation models to investing in power stations?
Where does Tom believe there is value in the application layer?
Why does Tom think that generative AI is largely a sustaining innovation?
Why does Tom think Microsoft will win the next wave of AI? Who else is well-positioned?
Why does Tom believe there is a correlation between those that fear monger around AGI and those that need funding for their businesses?
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