Unexpected Value - Poker · Daily Fantasy · Sports Betting #45: The Black Box
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Aug 17, 2021 In this discussion, Daniel Hutchings, a software engineer and creator of Pro Poker Tools, shares insights from his journey in transitioning from poker software to developing winning Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) strategies. He explores the nuances between balanced and exploitative strategies, and how automated simulations revolutionize lineup creation. Daniel also touches on the impact of ownership in different sports, the challenges of late swaps, and the future of DFS in a world of solvers and automation, all while balancing his diverse career in tech and music.
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From Poker Software To Big DFS Wins
- Daniel Hutchings began as a poker-software developer who built Pro Poker Tools and shifted into DFS around 2018.
- He used automated lineup generation and staking to scale from small success to big wins like a DraftKings showdown million-dollar prize.
Iterate By Averaging Thousands Of Candidates
- Hutchings iterated by generating thousands of candidate lineups and analyzing their average EV post-contest to refine models.
- He used stakeholder backing to scale once simulations consistently showed positive average EV.
Showdown Rewards Uniqueness Over Median EV
- Large variance in showdown-style events means a few unique lineups can take massive prizes, so uniqueness matters more than median EV.
- Mass-enter strategies can lose to a single contrarian solo lineup when chalk ties explode the prize split.
