The Pomp Podcast Professor Predicts MASSIVE 70% Stock Crash | Dave Collum
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Jan 5, 2026 
In a thought-provoking discussion, Dave Collum, a Cornell University professor and market commentator, dives into the stock market's inflated valuations, predicting a possible 70% crash. He shares his perspective on AI's potential while cautioning against overreliance on technology for immediate profits. Dave expresses concern over consumer debt and critiques the stability of assets like Bitcoin compared to gold. He also emphasizes the importance of independent thinking in navigating these turbulent economic times.
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Market Valuation Far Above Historical Mean
- Dave Collum calculates the market is ~200% above historical average valuation and that implies decades of poor capital gains ahead.
- To revert to mean, he estimates a potential 70% drawdown from current highs, not a short-lived correction.
Growth Can’t Make Overvaluation Disappear
- Growing GDP alone can't justify today's high valuations because historical growth rates are low (about 2–2.5%).
- Compound low GDP growth with current high valuations means investors may see near-zero real capital gains for decades.
Pick Equities Carefully In A Risky Market
- If you must hold equities, choose the 60% carefully and avoid chasing expensive deciles of valuation.
- Expect both stocks and bonds to be at risk; construct portfolios with that possibility in mind.
