Valuation Is the Root Risk

Dave Collum is a Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University. In this conversation, we discuss asset prices in 2025, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy on markets. Dave explains why he believes the stock market is overvalued, why he’s concerned about risk assets, and why he’s uneasy about gold’s strong performance despite being a major holder. We also touch on his annual letter, inflation, investing outlooks, U.S. politics, geopolitics, and why independent thinking matters heading into 2026.

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Timestamps:

• 0:00 - Intro
• 1:31 — 2025 asset performance & Dave’s big picture market view
• 5:56 — Debate: productivity/AI & “new era” valuations
• 11:33 — AI: the tech may be real, but the investment setup may be bad?
• 20:07 — Dave’s portfolio positioning & Gold vs Bitcoin
• 28:08 — Tether: transparency vs risks
• 32:40 — Evaluating Strategy leverage & premiums
• 35:25 — “Rough seas ahead” & why valuation is the core risk
• 46:17 — U.S. economic policy, tariffs, DOGE, government “fraud”
• 1:13:30 — Housing affordability: why building “luxury” can lower overall rents
• 1:18:48 — AI + education: personalized tutors vs losing the ability to think
• 1:22:42 — Tucker Carlson experience & media backlash
• 1:35:08 — Where to find Dave’s annual letter & closing thoughts