Assad's Fall, Israel's Continued Bombardment of Gaza, and U.S. Foreign Policy w/ Annelle Sheline
Dec 11, 2024
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Annelle Sheline, a former State Department official and expert on Middle Eastern politics, provides deep insights into the fall of Bashar al-Assad and its implications. She critiques U.S. foreign policy in the region, particularly regarding Israel's actions in Gaza and the complexities of the Syrian conflict. She discusses the rise of extremist groups, perceptions of international law, and shifts in alliances following the Abraham Accords. The conversation raises concerns about the future of Palestinian rights and the broader geopolitical dynamics involving Turkey and Iran.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria marks a pivotal geopolitical shift, raising concerns about ongoing instability and humanitarian crises in the region.
The U.S. foreign policy's unwavering support for Israel is seen as violating international law, risking further destabilization and eroding legitimacy in international institutions.
Deep dives
The Overthrow of Assad and Its Implications
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria represents a significant geopolitical shift, as Assad was a notorious dictator whose regime caused a refugee crisis impacting Europe and the Middle East. This moment is seen as both exciting and concerning; while there is relief at the depose of a tyrannical leader, the region remains fraught with instability. The consequences of Assad's exit are amplified by long-standing U.S. sanctions, which have impoverished the Syrian populace without achieving their intended goal of political change. Notably, it was the waning support from Assad's foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran, that contributed significantly to his downfall, rather than sanctions or military actions by Western powers.
The Role of HTS and the Future of Governance in Syria
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is emerging as a key player in Syria's evolving landscape after Assad's regime. Initially recognized as an extremist group, HTS may now be softening its stance and showing a willingness to govern in a less oppressive manner amid recognition from various factions. This potential moderation reflects political science theories suggesting that participation in governance could lead more extreme groups to adopt less harmful policies towards civilians and minorities. The implications of HTS's governance style, particularly regarding women's rights and the broader treatment of minority groups, are under scrutiny as Syrian society grapples with the impacts of longstanding conflict.
Regional Actors and Their Strategic Interests
The dynamics in Syria are further complicated by the conflicting interests of regional players such as Turkey and Israel, each pursuing distinct objectives. Turkey's involvement centers around containing Kurdish forces, which it views as a threat due to its own Kurdish population. Meanwhile, Israel has escalated military actions in Syria, including considerable airstrikes targeting alleged ISIS positions, while also pursuing territorial control in the Golan Heights. The outcome of these actions raises crucial questions about the future stability of the region, particularly how these two nations will respond to the power vacuum left by Assad's regime and the actions of extremist groups like HTS.
Impact of U.S. Foreign Policy on Middle Eastern Stability
The current trajectory of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East is marked by unyielding support for Israel, which is perceived as undermining international law and human rights in the region. This support has manifested in a lack of accountability regarding Israel's actions towards Palestinians, raising concerns about the legitimacy of international institutions. Observers suggest that the failure to impose checks on Israeli aggression could catalyze further regional instability and encourage other countries to disregard international norms. As the region grapples with multiple conflicts and a rising anti-American sentiment, the future of U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics hangs in the balance, potentially leading to destructive consequences.
On this edition of Parallax Views, the Quincy Institute's Annelle Sheline returns to discuss overthrow of dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, U.S. foreign policy, and Israel's continued bombardment of Gaza. This is the first time Dr. Sheline has been back on the show since resigning from the State Department over the Biden administration's policies on Gaza. We'll discuss this uncertain moment in the Middle East where U.S. policy has gone wrong in the Middle East and beyond, Turkey, the U.S. and Israel's strikes in Syria; the Syrian rebel faction Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) that has taken the Syrian capital of Damascus; Assad's dictatorship; U.S. double standards about international law in relation to Israel's action in Gaza; the possibility of continued conflict in Syria despite Assad's overthrow; the Kurds in northeastern Syria; concerns about Trump and Middle East policy under his administration; Iran and discourse around the "Axis of Resistance"; and much, much more.
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