Pivot to Asia: Why the Near Abroad is Now China's Top Priority
Aug 15, 2023
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China's shift in focus from expanding global presence to prioritizing Asia; the sensitivity of territorial claims in the South China Sea; China's strategies and interests in Central Asia and Afghanistan; the Uyghur situation in Xinjiang and its geopolitical significance; China's growing influence in Central Asia and the dynamics with Russia; China's integration of security and the challenges faced by broken societies.
China's shift in focus to its 'near abroad' in Asia is driven by the new era of Great Power competition with the United States and Europe.
Central Asia's strategic importance and economic opportunities make it a focal point of Chinese diplomacy.
While Central Asia plays a role in the US-China competition, its impact is less prominent compared to other regions, and the countries seek a balanced approach to maintain relationships with both powers.
Deep dives
The South China Sea Tensions and Mutual Defense Treaty
The tensions in the South China Sea, particularly over territorial claims, remain a significant and dangerous situation. On August 5th, a Chinese Coast Guard cutter used a high-powered water cannon against a Philippine naval vessel trying to provide provisions to a World War II warship sitting on coral in the South China Sea. The United States, being a treaty ally of the Philippines, has reiterated its commitment to defend against coast guard interactions. The potential for a confrontation between China and the United States is escalating, with both countries issuing warnings to each other. The situation should be of concern as it could have far-reaching implications.
Central Asia as a Focus of Chinese Diplomacy
Central Asia has become a focal point of Chinese diplomacy, particularly due to the region's strategic importance and China's interest in stability and prosperity. China sees stability in Xinjiang, which shares a border with Central Asia, as key to maintaining stability at home. Additionally, Central Asia presents valuable opportunities for economic engagement, resource access, and transportation routes. China's engagement in Central Asia is influenced by various factors, including historical ties, security concerns, and economic interests. While Russia also maintains influence in Central Asia, the region sees China as a major player, and Central Asian countries actively seek to cultivate relationships with both Russia and China for economic benefits and security.
US-China Competition and Central Asia's Position
Central Asia plays a role in the broader competition between the United States and China, but the impact is not as prominent as in other regions. While the United States does not have major bases in Central Asia, it maintains some security engagement, especially along the Afghan border. Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have established economic ties with China, benefiting from investments and trade. The region's view of the US-China competition is nuanced, with varying interests and concerns. Central Asian countries seek a balanced approach, maintaining relationships with both the US and China, while focusing on economic development and stability. While China's influence in the region is growing, Russia remains influential in Central Asia and continues to provide security support and engage with the countries in the region.
China's engagement in Central Asia as a testing ground
Central Asia has become a testing ground for China's new policies and foreign engagement strategies. China is willing to take risks and invest heavily in infrastructure development in the region, using it as a platform to test ideas before implementing them elsewhere. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is an example of China's engagement in Central Asia, where it has asserted its influence and sought to dilute Russian influence. China's deep enthusiasm for engaging with Central Asian countries and its substantial investments in the region indicate its increasing priority in Chinese foreign policy.
China's limited involvement in resolving issues in Central Asia
China's engagement in Central Asia is characterized by a focus on trade and economic development, without significant involvement in resolving political or security issues. China prefers to observe and let the countries of Central Asia manage their own problems. This limited approach is in line with China's risk aversion and focus on maintaining stability within its borders. However, the region's history of instability and potential for conflict pose challenges, and China's reluctance to address these issues may have broader global consequences.
For much of the past 20 years, China sought to radically expand its presence beyond its traditional spheres of influence to new regions in Africa, the Americas, and the Middle East. China lent billions to countries in these regions and devoted considerable diplomatic capital to building political influence there as well.
But now, in this new era of Great Power competition with the United States and Europe, China is once again shifting its focus, this time closer to home in Asia. Its so-called "near abroad" is now by far the most consequential region for China both in terms of trade and, increasingly, new security challenges.
Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute and a visiting senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, is one of the world's leading experts on China's relations in Central Asia and joins Eric & Cobus to discuss why this region, in particular, is now so important to Beijing.
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