The 5th Hydrogen Energy Ministerial in Tokyo announced that by 2030, the world would produce and use 90 million tonnes of renewable and low-carbon hydrogen. Then, last year, the 6th Hydrogen Energy Ministerial not only reiterated the 90 million tonne target, but went further, promising that the overall market for hydrogen would grow to 150 million tonnes by 2030. All very exciting, and it helped to ensure that hydrogen was one of the hot topics at COP 28 in Dubai a few months later. But these targets are unachievable. The issue is simple: it's money. The biggest challenge facing low emission hydrogen is that it is expensive to produce, expensive to transport, expensive to store, expensive to distribute, and expensive to use. Whether you're switching existing users to clean hydrogen or pushing hydrogen into sectors where it's not currently used, it takes money - and lots of it.
In this week's episode of Cleaning Up, we find how much and how much more governments would have to spend for hydrogen to live up to its hype. This audio blog is adapted from a piece Michael wrote at the end of last year for BloombergNEF, entitled "Clean Hydrogen's Missing Trillions", which estimated that hitting the Hydrogen Energy Ministerial target of 90 million tonnes of clean energy by 2030 would require subsidies of at least $2.3 trillion to be on the table right now, while the actual figure at the end of last year was 1/10th of that. Although the figures have changed a bit since then, the message remains the same: the subsidy gap remains in the multiple trillions of dollars. It should not therefore be surprising that the news is full of projects being cancelled and delayed. In fact, that will be one of the main hydrogen stories through to 2030 and beyond.
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Links
Michael's December 2023 BloombergNEF piece - "Clean Hydrogen's Missing Trillions", on which this audio blog is based: https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-clean-hydrogens-missing-trillions/
Michael's September 2023 BloombergNEF Piece - "The Five Horsemen of the Transition": https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-net-zero-will-be-harder-than-you-think-and-easier-part-i-harder/
Michael's December 2022 BloombergNEF piece - "The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen": https://about.bnef.com/blog/liebreich-the-unbearable-lightness-of-hydrogen/
The Chair's Summary of the 6th Hydrogen Energy Ministerial: https://hem-2023.nedo.go.jp/wp-content/themes/suiso2023--THEME/files/charis-summary-en.pdf
The US National Petroleum Council Report - "Harnessing Hydrogen": https://harnessinghydrogen.npc.org
The PwC Report - "Navigating the Global Hydrogen Ecosystem": https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/energy-utilities/navigating-the-hydrogen-ecosystem.html
The IEA's 2023 Net Zero Roadmap: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/13dab083-08c3-4dfd-a887-42a3ebe533bc/NetZeroRoadmap_AGlobalPathwaytoKeepthe1.5CGoalinReach-2023Update.pdf
The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review: https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/8d434960-a85c-4c02-ad96-77794aaa175d/GlobalHydrogenReview2023.pdf
Related Episodes
Audioblog 11 - The Five Horsemen of the Transition: https://www.cleaningup.live/audioblog-11-net-zero-will-be-harder-than-you-think-and-easier-part-i-harder-1/
Audioblog 8- The Unbearable Lightness of Hydrogen: https://www.cleaningup.live/cleaning-up-audioblog-episode-8-the-unbearable-lightness-of-hydrogen/
Cleaning Up: Leadership in an Age of Climate Change