HousingWire Daily Is the housing market finally flagging a recession?
10 snips
Aug 5, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst renowned for his housing market insights, joins to explore critical economic trends. He analyzes the fluctuating mortgage rates following recent jobs reports and their potential impacts on builder confidence. They dive into the challenges facing residential construction labor and how factors like AI are reshaping the market. Mohtashami also sheds light on the complexities of economic indicators, emphasizing the importance of transparency in job data collection.
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Episode notes
Housing Labor Flags Recession
- Residential construction labor decline is an early recession indicator when combined with rising completed units.
- Unique cycle factors like AI data center construction contrast typical housing market trends.
Interpreting Construction Labor Data
- Mild four-month decreases in construction labor data need more velocity and duration to confirm economic shifts.
- Multiple data sources and curve slope analysis help clarify confusing real estate market signals.
Impact of 6% Mortgage Rates
- Mortgage rates around 6% historically boost builder confidence and new home sales.
- The Federal Reserve largely ignores housing, impacting economic policy related to this sector.