Gavin Esler chats with Russian journalist Andrei Soldatov about the intelligence failures leading to the Crocus City Hall massacre by ISIS in Moscow. They discuss Putin's blame-game, FSB negligence, and potential consequences of the attack. Soldatov sheds light on the Russian system's challenges and the brutality faced by Tajikistan men in Russia, revealing a message from the Kremlin. Putin's response to Ukraine and domestic security issues is also analyzed, along with the manipulation of narratives by Russian authorities. The episode also touches on the 'Paper Cuts' podcast, offering a humorous take on tabloid news.
Russian FSB disregarded Western intelligence warnings leading to fatalities in Crocus Hall attack.
Publicized torture of Tajikistan suspects signals increased state-sponsored violence and intimidation tactics in Russia.
Deep dives
Russian Intelligence Failure in Response to Attack
The FSB, Russia's primary counterterrorism agency, failed in their response to the Crocus concert hall attack resulting in more deaths from fire than from the terrorists. This failure is recurrent and indicative of systemic issues in Russian counterterrorism measures as highlighted by a Russian intelligence expert with over 20 years of experience. Despite warnings from Western intelligence agencies, particularly the CIA, about the imminent attack in Russia, the FSB ignored these alerts, underscoring a significant breakdown in communication and preparedness.
Public Treatment of Tajikistan Suspects and Intimidation Tactics
The brutal treatment of the four Tajikistan men arrested in connection with the attack, with leaked images of their injuries, suggests a disturbing shift in public display of state-sponsored violence by the Russian security services. This unprecedented exposure of torture tactics serves a dual purpose: intimidating dissidents within Russia by showcasing the consequences of opposition and sending a message to Russian military and security forces operating in Ukraine about the accepted brutality standards.
Potential Repression and Xenophobia in Response
The aftermath of the attack raises concerns about Putin's handling of security domestically and internationally, leading to a potential increase in repressive measures targeting those perceived as collaborators with terrorists. Putin's historical response to security challenges has been marked by more significant repression, underlined by his recent inclination to authorize deadly actions against individuals suspected of aiding terrorists. Despite global skepticism, Putin's narrative shifting blame to Ukraine finds some support in a backdrop of cultivated xenophobia and the prevalence of conspiracy theories in Russian society.
Special edition: On Friday March 22, Islamic State gunmen murdered more than 130 people in Moscow’s Crocus City Hall concert venue, just 12 miles from the Kremlin. Putin tried to direct the blame towards Ukraine, but it has emerged that Russia’s FSB had ignored plausible warnings of an impending terror attack from Western security services.
Gavin Esler speaks to Russian investigative journalist and security services expert Andrei Soldatov about this catastrophic failure of Russian intelligence, her military and her emergency services – and the possible consequences of the Crocus City Hall massacre.
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production