Moody's Talks - Inside Economics Inside China
Jan 16, 2026
Logan Wright, partner and director of China markets research at Rhodium Group, dives deep into the nuances of the Chinese economy. He discusses the troubling discrepancies in China's GDP data and the impact of a collapsing property sector on real growth. Logan links the slowdown to a major credit bubble and highlights the risks of 'zombified' lending. He also evaluates China's growing reliance on exports, geopolitical tensions, and its strategic use of rare earths, offering a stark outlook on domestic demand and limited policy options.
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Two Decades In China Informs His View
- Logan lived in Beijing and Hong Kong for 21 years and began as a PBOC central‑bank watcher.
- His long on‑the‑ground experience informs Rhodium’s China financial plumbing research.
Inflation Data Quality Has Eroded
- U.S. inflation measures face growing imputation issues after staffing cuts and the government shutdown.
- Roughly 20% of CPI prices are imputed and the less‑precise 'different cell' imputations rose to ~40% of imputed items.
China’s GDP Likely Overstated
- China’s official GDP figures mask a much weaker post‑COVID domestic demand story driven by a property collapse and credit slowdown.
- Rhodium estimates China’s true growth is closer to 1.5–2% rather than the reported ~5% in recent years.