HousingWire Daily What happens to mortgage rates if Trump tariffs are shot down?
4 snips
Nov 6, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst in U.S. housing and mortgage markets, joins the discussion to unpack the intricacies of mortgage rates. He explores how job data impacts rate fluctuations and delves into the potential economic effects if Trump's tariffs are overturned. Logan emphasizes that stronger economic indicators might actually lead to rising mortgage rates, a surprising twist in market dynamics. He also critiques the NAR's data on first-time homebuyers, questioning its reliability in today's shifting landscape.
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Economic Data Moved Yields More Than Tariff News
- Strong short-term economic signals (ISM new orders, ADP) pushed bond yields and mortgage pricing slightly higher today.
- Logan argues these data show the economy is softer but not in a breaking recession, so yields rise when data improves.
Rates Follow Fed Signals And Labor Strength
- Mortgage rates and 10-year yields move in a slow-dance driven by Fed policy and incoming data.
- Logan notes rates below ~4% are hard to sustain unless the Fed turns dovish or the labor market breaks.
Tariffs Matter — But Fed Policy Matters More
- If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, disinflation in goods could reduce some price pressure but Fed policy still dominates rates.
- Logan doubts removing tariffs would dramatically change the Fed's modestly restrictive stance.
