Gridlock: US Struggles to Make Enough Transformers
Nov 15, 2023
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Exploring the challenges of meeting the US's increasing demand for large power transformers, including the impact of tariffs and material scarcity. The podcast also discusses the reliance on imports, the future demand for transformers, and the expensiveness and importance of these specialized devices.
The US is projected to require over 1,300 large power transformers by 2030, but there are concerns about the availability and supply to meet this demand.
The US relies heavily on imports for transformers, and discussions are ongoing about the need for domestic manufacturing capabilities to reduce reliance on imports and mitigate supply chain disruptions.
Deep dives
The Role and Importance of Transformers in the Energy Sector
Transformers play a critical role in the energy sector, particularly in the grid. They are essential for converting power from low voltage to high voltage, allowing for efficient transmission across long distances. Large power transformers (LPTs) are especially important as they regulate the supply of electricity on the grid. With the increasing adoption of renewable energy and the need for replacing aging transformers, the demand for LPTs is set to rise. Under the economic transition scenario, the US is projected to require over 1,300 LPTs by the end of the decade, a 47% increase from 2022. However, there are concerns about the availability and supply of transformers to meet this growing demand.
Challenges in Transformer Manufacturing
Transformer manufacturing comes with several challenges. The production process for transformers is time-consuming, taking between 5 to 12 months for completion. Current waiting times for transformers are extended, with lead times ranging from 2 to 4 years and sometimes even up to 5 years. Manufacturers are cautious about increasing capacity and investing in new manufacturing plants due to the uncertainty of future demand. Moreover, the complex and specialized nature of transformer manufacturing makes it a tough business to enter and can lead to low yielding and high failure rates. As a result, the market for transformers remains limited, with only a few major players in the industry.
Supply Chain Challenges and Reliance on Imports
The US has historically relied heavily on imports for transformers, with import penetration rates reaching around 80%. Mexico and Canada are the main exporters to the US, largely due to lower labor costs and fewer trade uncertainties. However, the import of critical materials, such as electrical steel, used in transformer manufacturing, poses potential risks, especially when relying on imports from countries like China. The US has faced supply chain disruptions and import tariffs on steel, impacting transformer production. This has prompted discussions about the need for domestic manufacturing capabilities and reducing reliance on imports.
Future Demand and Capacity Constraints
Future demand for transformers is expected to increase due to the replacement of aging infrastructure and the growth of renewable energy projects. In BNF's economic transition scenario, demand for transformers in the US is projected to reach over 1,350 units by the end of the decade, while the net zero scenario estimates demand to exceed 2,000 units by 2030. However, there are concerns about whether the existing manufacturing capacity can meet this demand. Manufacturers, cautious about making substantial investments, are closely monitoring future demand and ramping up current production while addressing bottlenecks. This situation may lead to longer waiting times for transformers and potential delays in grid connections and infrastructure upgrades.
Large power transformers, or LPTs for short, are integral for the functioning of the energy grid. But with BloombergNEF forecasting that the US will need to nearly double its units by 2030, will the country manage to meet the demand, or could it be facing further bottlenecks?
On today’s show, Dana sits down with Eva Gonzalez Isla from BNEF’s modeling team. Together, they discuss what large power transformers are and what they do, US government policy and whether it has been aiding or hampering production, and the countries that are making up for a shortfall in the US’s transformer production capacity. Today’s episode draws from the BNEF research note US Risks Power Transformer Supply Gap Becoming a Chasm.
Complimentary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.
Links to research notes from this episode:
US Risks Power Transformer Supply Gap Becoming a Chasm - https://www.bnef.com/insights/32571