ChinaTalk Détente 2.0 with Mike Froman of CFR
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Dec 15, 2025 
Mike Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Trade Representative, dives into the relevance of his 1992 dissertation on détente and how it applies to U.S.-China relations today. He explores the shift from nuclear mutual assured destruction to economic dependencies like rare earths and technology. Froman discusses the complexities of trade normalization, the limits of cooperation in altering adversary behavior, and the ongoing challenges of U.S.-China economic interdependence, offering insights into strategies for resilience and coalition-building.
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Détente’s Reciprocity Problem
- Mike Froman argues détente's reciprocity principle still applies to U.S.-China relations today.
- Positive linkage failed because cooperation in one area rarely changed behavior in contested areas.
Interdependence Changes Leverage
- Economic interdependence makes U.S.-China dynamics distinct from the U.S.-Soviet case.
- Cooperation on shared interests did not translate into influence over China's divergent policies.
Mutual Assured Destruction Goes Economic
- Froman says mutual assured destruction now manifests in supply chains and tech choke points.
- Both sides hold costly levers, producing stalemate and incentives for rules of the road.