Excess Returns Magnet Above. Trap Door Below | Inside the Options Flows Driving Markets with Brent Kochuba
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Dec 13, 2025 
Brent Kochuba, founder of Spot Gamma and an expert in options flow analysis, dives into the intricate workings of the market as December's options expiration approaches. He discusses the dramatic growth in options activity since 2020 and how it influences daily market moves. Kochuba highlights the significance of December OPEX, forecasting it could be the largest ever. He also explores the interplay between volatility patterns, the potential for a Santa Claus rally, and the effects of significant earnings on market dynamics.
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Options Now Drive Daily Market Moves
- Options volume has surged since 2020 and now materially influences daily stock moves.
- Watching options flows reveals real market bets beyond surface-level commentary.
Expirations Often Reverse Trends
- Monthly expirations can flip price trends because hedging flows build then disappear at expiry.
- Data shows a 60–65% chance of trend change around expirations in recent years.
Watch Zero‑DTE Flows Daily
- Monitor zero-DTE flows if you trade the S&P because they now dominate daily gamma.
- Adjust positions for intraday hedging flows from market-makers selling or buying options.