Europe, Trump and Chagos: What will UK foreign policy look like in 2025?
Dec 6, 2024
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Join James Landale, BBC’s diplomatic editor, Anand Menon, an expert on UK-Europe relations, and Olivia O’Sullivan, director at Chatham House, as they dissect UK foreign policy under Keir Starmer. They tackle the challenges of the UK's relationship with Europe, the implications of the Chagos Islands sovereignty debate, and how these factors could shape Britain's global standing by 2025. With rising geopolitical tensions, they discuss the necessity for strategic leadership to redefine the UK's role on the world stage.
The UK government faces challenges in defining a coherent foreign policy while trying to balance relations with both the US and Europe.
The controversial Chagos Islands deal has raised concerns over sovereignty and military access, reflecting a lack of engagement with affected communities.
Deep dives
The Shift in UK Foreign Policy
The recent changes in UK foreign policy prioritize working with both America and Europe, rejecting the notion that the UK must choose between the two. The new government has focused on increased presence and engagement, with notable international summits where they emphasized a collaborative approach. Critics highlight that despite this presence, the government lacks a clear and coherent strategy that defines its foreign policy direction and objectives. There is a prevailing sense of caution among diplomats regarding what the UK truly stands for on the global stage five months after the change in leadership.
Resetting Relations with Europe
Labour's government aims to reset relations with Europe for potential growth, yet ambitions remain limited without crossing key red lines like joining the customs union. The narrative is shifting to a positive-sum game in Europe, moving away from a zero-sum mentality characterized by past governments. However, various unresolved technical matters, such as mutual recognition of qualifications, reflect a disconnected agenda lacking a strong collective vision. Both sides struggle to find common ground, with key issues like youth mobility causing friction and complicating the anticipated reset.
The Chagos Islands Controversy
The recent agreement on the Chagos Islands represents a significant yet controversial move by the UK government, ceding sovereignty to Mauritius while maintaining military access. Critics have raised alarms about the loss of territory and its implications, particularly regarding China's potential influence in the region. The deal has encountered backlash from various factions, including the Chagossian community, who assert they were not properly consulted on the agreement. Despite the technical merits of the deal, the government faces scrutiny for not effectively communicating its significance and intentions to both domestic and international audiences.
Navigating Global Geopolitics
The UK government's approach to foreign relations is challenged by rising tensions with the US and evolving dynamics with the EU, particularly post-Trump. There are signs that the UK may need to make difficult choices between maintaining strong ties with the US and developing closer collaboration with Europe. This complexity is exacerbated by the need for strategic decisions concerning tariffs and trade, especially with a potential return of Trump to power. The current government must navigate these geopolitical changes while ensuring that its strategies align with the shifting landscape of international relations.
Five months in, has Sir Keir Starmer's foreign policy been a success? The UK-EU relationship remains a major challenge for 2025, as does the prospect of a new US president. How will Starmer respond, and will the recent Chagos Islands deal impact the UK's international standing?
Bronwen Maddox is joined the BBC’s diplomatic editor James Landale, Professor Anand Menon, the director of UK in a Changing Europe at King's College London and Olivia O’Sullivan and the director of our UK in the World programme.