Experts Jared McKinney and Peter Harris discuss the deterrence decay in the Taiwan Strait, exploring constraints vs. restraints in deterrence strategies. They debate the value of symbolic solidarity with Taiwan, strategic ambiguity, and how Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture. The conversation touches on measuring invasion risk, decision trees for irrational choices, and lessons from Iran and Israel's dynamics.
Maintaining multi-layered deterrence is crucial, involving different actors and capabilities.
Shift from constraints to restraints impacts deterrence strategies and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
Investing in modern military capabilities and mobilizing reserve forces can enhance deterrence against invasion.
Deep dives
Taiwan's Historical Position of Security
From the late 1950s to the early 2000s, Taiwan was in a fairly secure position where a PRC invasion was unlikely due to robust deterrence measures, including Taiwanese and American military power collaboration. American military engagement, the Taiwan Strait Patrol, and even tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Taiwan contributed to this secure stance.
Conceptual Innovation in Deterrence
The podcast introduced a concept of multi-layered overlapping concurrent deterrence, emphasizing the roles of different actors and capabilities in maintaining deterrence. By looking at American military power, Taiwan's air power, and other elements, the discussion highlighted the need to consider various deterrence factors rather than relying on a singular approach.
Evolving Factors in Deterrence
Changes in deterrence dynamics were discussed, including the shift from constraints to restraints in deterrence strategies. The considerations of constraints limiting actions and restraints involving internal decisions influenced the evolving deterrence landscape. The impact of changing one China policies and economic interactions on deterrence was explored, reflecting on how these trends affect the stability of the Taiwan Strait.
Historical Evidence on the Difficulty of Invasion in Taiwan
The podcast delves into historical evidence from a student's research, indicating the challenges of invading Taiwan. Looking back at America's military plans in 1944, the operation revealed the significant force ratios needed to conquer the island held by Japan. With comparisons to the present military landscape in Taiwan, the podcast highlights the logistical challenges of ensuring a successful invasion.
Strategies for Deterrence and Military Preparedness
Discussing strategies for deterrence, the podcast emphasizes the importance of investing in modern military capabilities and mobilizing reserve forces. By focusing on technologies like drones, missiles, and artillery, along with enhancing reserve forces akin to Singapore's model, the podcast suggests that a strong deterrence could be achieved. This approach aims to make invasion impractical for potential aggressors, advocating for modern military investments over threatening actions like preemptive nuclear war.