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ChinaTalk

Preventing an Invasion of Taiwan

Jun 3, 2024
Experts Jared McKinney and Peter Harris discuss the deterrence decay in the Taiwan Strait, exploring constraints vs. restraints in deterrence strategies. They debate the value of symbolic solidarity with Taiwan, strategic ambiguity, and how Taiwan can optimize its deterrence posture. The conversation touches on measuring invasion risk, decision trees for irrational choices, and lessons from Iran and Israel's dynamics.
01:32:57

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Maintaining multi-layered deterrence is crucial, involving different actors and capabilities.
  • Shift from constraints to restraints impacts deterrence strategies and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Deep dives

Taiwan's Historical Position of Security

From the late 1950s to the early 2000s, Taiwan was in a fairly secure position where a PRC invasion was unlikely due to robust deterrence measures, including Taiwanese and American military power collaboration. American military engagement, the Taiwan Strait Patrol, and even tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Taiwan contributed to this secure stance.

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