Daniel Davis Deep Dive Iran Remains Defiant /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud
Jan 26, 2026
Jacques Baud, retired Swiss intelligence and NATO officer known for strategic analysis, joins to dissect Iran’s posture and risks. He discusses U.S. carrier buildups, the limits of strikes, and why Tehran might retaliate against Israel rather than the U.S. Conversation shifts to NATO, Greenland’s strategic myths, European defense capacity, and how sanctions shape politics. Calls for legal advocacy wrap up the talk.
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Buildup Patterns Signal Intent, Not Outcome
- Col Jacques Baud says US force buildups before strikes follow a familiar pattern of electronic warfare, Tomahawk-capable destroyers and air defenses.
- He warns the pattern signals intent but outcomes depend on strike type and Iranian calculations.
Repeated Pressure Risks Major Iranian Escalation
- Baud argues Iran calibrates responses to avoid full war but may escalate strongly if provoked repeatedly.
- He cautions repeated strikes risk forcing Iran into a decisive, large-scale reply.
Rethinking The 'State Sponsor' Label
- Baud disputes the blanket label of Iran as the world's top state sponsor of terrorism and highlights Iran's role fighting Sunni extremist groups.
- He distinguishes Hezbollah as a Lebanese resistance movement rather than a Western-defined terrorist group.