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Rae Maile: A Lifetime in Tobacco

Sep 27, 2024
Guest
Rae Maile
Rae Maile, a seasoned tobacco industry analyst with over 35 years of experience, shares his insights on the evolving nicotine landscape. He discusses the tobacco industry's resilience, the dynamics of taxation and illicit trade, and the changing sentiments of anti-smoking groups. Rae also dives into the regulatory challenges facing next-gen nicotine products and critiques the obsession with volume over critical variables. His unique writing style and the importance of storytelling in analysis are highlighted, bringing a fresh perspective to the tobacco sector.
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INSIGHT

Perpetual Pessimism Masks Durability

  • The industry repeatedly faces perpetual pessimism from analysts and executives despite long-term resilience.
  • Rae Maile points out that skepticism about tobacco's future has persisted since the 1950s yet profits endured.
INSIGHT

Population Growth Offsets Prevalence Declines

  • Declining smoking prevalence can hide stable or rising smoker counts because populations grow.
  • WHO still estimates about a billion smokers globally, so demand remains large.
INSIGHT

New Products Change Markets Unevenly

  • Next-gen products reshape markets unevenly by country and history rather than replacing combustibles uniformly.
  • Many consumers still prefer cigarettes for ritual, satisfaction, and social theatre.
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