Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth How our Prophit System Forecasts Creative Volume
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Jan 29, 2026 Adrian Barkley, VP of performance creative at Common Thread Collective who builds creative demand models. He explains the Prophit System’s 12-month creative forecast and how it ties to spend targets. Topics include creative scoring and metrics, persona-focused ads and AI-generated briefs, vendor mixes and evergreen creative, and using forecasts to plan production cadence and expand channels.
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Underproduction Drives ROAS Decay
- Under-producing ads causes efficiency decay as spend scales.
- The model showed this brand needed ~30–40 ads monthly but produced far fewer, driving ROAS decline.
Plan 12 Months, Track Monthly Gaps
- Set a rolling 12-month ad production target tied to spend and track monthly deltas.
- Assign ownership for who makes each ad and close gaps early with vendors or hires.
Specify Asset Mix And Repurpose Creatives
- Define asset mix targets (e.g., 70% video, 30% stills) and optimize each format's role.
- Convert creator videos into stills and add captions/voiceovers to increase usable volume.