In this insightful discussion, Ali Jaffery, a Senior Economist at CIBC, shares his expertise on the Bank of Canada's monetary policy. He explains how to interpret the current easing cycle and what it means for interest rates. Jaffery dives into the Bank's inflation risks, highlighting the need for rate relief in an economy grappling with excess supply. He also provides an economic outlook for Canada and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of accurate data for forecasting. Tune in for a deep dive into Canada’s economic future!
The Bank of Canada utilizes a data-driven approach to monetary policy, focusing on real-time data instead of explicit future guidance.
Recent inflation forecasts have consistently underperformed, prompting the Bank of Canada to consider a shift towards a more aggressive monetary stance.
Deep dives
Differences Between the Bank of Canada and the Fed
The Bank of Canada adopts a data-driven approach to monetary policy, focusing on incoming economic data rather than providing explicit guidance on future moves. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which often uses near-term forward guidance to signal its intentions. Canada’s economic landscape, marked by its status as a small, open economy and a commodity exporter, demands a cautious and reactive strategy, as its data is volatile and influenced by global events. Consequently, while the Fed’s communications can significantly impact financial markets, the Bank of Canada prioritizes real-time data to determine its next steps.
Inflation Forecast Challenges
Recent months have revealed a trend of consistent downside surprises in the Bank of Canada’s inflation forecasts, missing targets by an average of 0.2 percentage points. This pattern highlights the urgent need for the bank to adopt a more aggressive approach to monetary policy, potentially leading to rate relief for Canadians. Historically, the bank has shown strong forecasting capabilities, particularly before the pandemic, but the current volatility has made predicting inflation more challenging. As a result, the bank shifted its policy adjustments, opting for larger rate changes in response to persistent underestimations of inflation.
Assessing Economic Activity and Risks
The Bank of Canada emphasizes economic output, particularly GDP, when assessing economic activity, distinguishing it from the Fed’s focus on the labor market. This reflects a broader analysis of the economy's health, where the bank monitors the output gap rather than solely relying on unemployment data. In their recent assessments, the bank has identified a rising trend in downside risks to inflation, suggesting a cautious outlook despite maintaining a view of balanced risks overall. This evolving understanding of risks may lead the bank to adopt a more accommodative monetary stance in future meetings, particularly in light of conditions indicating excess supply in the Canadian economy.
CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld chats with Ali Jaffery, CIBC Senior Economist about how to read the tea leaves in this easing cycle. Those tea leaves point to the Bank of Canada taking another big step in December, enroute to a bit below neutral next year.
For more information, check out the In Focus report here: https://economics.cibccm.com/cds?ID=c9e80163-55bb-469f-8b0a-c7f0877374de&TYPE=E
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