ChinaTalk

chevron_right

War in Taiwan: Who Would Win?

whatshot 8 snips

Jan 29, 2023

Guest

Michael O'Hanlon

In an insightful discussion, Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at Brookings focused on U.S. defense strategy, explores the unpredictable dynamics of a potential China-Taiwan conflict. He emphasizes the limitations of traditional modeling exercises and the challenges posed by emerging military technologies. The conversation delves into how past conflicts can inform current strategies and the importance of integrated deterrence amidst rapid technological advancements. O'Hanlon also sheds light on the emotional and practical impacts of military innovation and its implications for national security.

01:09:49

forum

Ask episode

web_stories

AI Snips

view_agenda

Chapters

menu_book

Books

auto_awesome

Transcript

info_circle

Episode notes

insights

INSIGHT

War Outcome Uncertainty

Predicting war outcomes is difficult, especially with untested technologies and actors like China and the U.S.
The lack of real-world data makes it hard to model outcomes accurately.

question_answer

ANECDOTE

Sports Analogy

O'Hanlon uses sports analogies to illustrate the unpredictability of conflict, even with set parameters.
Two teams can play each other twice with vastly different outcomes, highlighting the human element.

insights

INSIGHT

Modeling Exercises

Modeling exercises, despite limitations, can offer insights by attempting to predict past conflicts.
If a model can predict past outcomes, it might be applied to hypothetical future scenarios.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Predicting Military Conflicts: The US-China Dilemma

04:43 • 30min

chevron_right

Navigating Change in Military Innovation

35:10 • 3min

chevron_right

Perceptions of Technological Change in Warfare

37:46 • 4min

chevron_right

Deterrence in a Tech-Driven World

41:51 • 12min

chevron_right

AI and Machine Learning: Revolutionizing Military Sensing

53:45 • 2min

chevron_right

Exploring Military Narratives and Insights

55:51 • 11min

chevron_right

2034

A Novel of the Next World War

Elliot Ackerman

James Stavridis

2034: A Novel of the Next World War is a cautionary tale that explores the dangerous realities of geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China. The novel depicts a future where a miscalculation leads to a catastrophic war, highlighting themes of human folly and miscalculation. It received positive reviews for its realistic portrayal and engaging characters.

The Kill Chain

Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare

Christian Brose

In 'The Kill Chain,' Christian Brose argues that the U.S. military is losing pace to technological advancements and strategic shifts by adversaries such as China and Russia. Brose introduces the concept of the 'kill chain'—a process involving understanding the situation, decision-making, and executing actions—to highlight the need for a defensive mindset in modern warfare. He advocates for a shift from traditional offensive strategies to a culture and doctrine of defense, emphasizing the use of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to prevent war, deter aggression, and maintain peace.

My Share of the Task

A Memoir

General Stanley McChrystal

In *My Share of the Task*, General Stanley McChrystal reflects on his military career, from his early days at West Point to his leadership roles in Iraq and Afghanistan. The book explores his approach to leadership, emphasizing decentralization, initiative, and the importance of understanding the complexities of modern warfare. McChrystal also discusses the challenges he faced and the lessons he learned throughout his career.

Men, Machines, and Modern Times

None

Elton Mayo

The Masks of War

American Military Styles in Strategy and Analysis

Carl H. Builder

In *The Masks of War*, Carl H. Builder explores the puzzling and often contradictory behavior of America's military forces by examining the entrenched institutions and distinct personalities of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. The book delves into how these service identities influence strategy and analysis, highlighting why military reform often faces challenges. It also discusses how changes in strategic thinking typically occur after significant crises, such as Pearl Harbor.

Battle Cry of Freedom

The Civil War Era

James McPherson

Battle Cry of Freedom: The Civil War Era is a detailed historical account by James M. McPherson, spanning two decades from the Mexican-American War to the end of the Civil War at Appomattox. The book integrates political, social, and military events, providing a thorough analysis of the pre-war period and the Civil War itself. McPherson examines the multiple interpretations of freedom held by both the North and South, highlighting how these differing views led to the conflict. The book is part of the Oxford History of the United States series and is praised for its fluid writing style, use of anecdotes, and comprehensive coverage of the period, including significant events like the Dred Scott decision, the Lincoln-Douglas debates, and John Brown's raid on Harpers Ferry.

The jungle grows back

Robert Kagan

In 'The Jungle Grows Back,' Robert Kagan argues that the world order maintained by the United States is precarious and requires constant effort to prevent chaos. He warns that American withdrawal from its leadership role would lead to a more dangerous world, as weaker nations revert to historical power struggles. Kagan emphasizes the importance of U.S. engagement in maintaining global stability.

Mr. Putin

Operative in the Kremlin

Fiona Hill

Clifford Gaddy

This book provides a detailed analysis of Vladimir Putin's rise to power and his leadership style. Hill and Gaddy trace Putin's formative experiences, including his early life in Soviet Leningrad, his KGB training, and his roles in St. Petersburg and Moscow. The authors break down Putin's six identities—Statist, History Man, Survivalist, Outsider, Free Marketeer, and Case Officer—to explain his actions and policies. The book also addresses common misconceptions about Putin and offers insights into his objectives and how he views the outside world, particularly in relation to Western countries and global security.

The world America made

Robert Kagan

The Senkaku Paradox

Michael O'Hanlon

The Senkaku Paradox explores the potential for local crises to escalate into broader conflicts between great powers. It discusses scenarios where Russia or China might seize strategically insignificant territories, triggering defense treaties and risking major war. The book advocates for an integrated deterrence strategy combining military and economic tools to reduce the likelihood of such escalations.

The Gates of Europe

Serhii Plokhy

In 'The Gates of Europe', Serhii Plokhy provides a detailed account of Ukraine's history, from the arrival of the Vikings to the present day. The book highlights Ukraine's role as a crossroads between empires and its ongoing quest for identity and independence. Plokhy examines major historical figures and events that have shaped Ukraine's past and continue to influence its present.

Warriors and Citizens

American Views of Our Military

Kori Schake

General James Mattis

Warriors and Citizens examines the disconnect between the U.S. military and the broader society, particularly after decades of continuous warfare and an all-volunteer force. The book delves into the paradoxes of American attitudes toward the military, such as strong support combined with a lack of understanding. It provides insights and recommendations to strengthen civil-military relations and ensure the military remains connected to American society.

China v Taiwan: who would win? Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research at Brookings. He specializes in U.S. defense strategy, the use of military force, and American national security policy.

We discuss

The limits of scenarios that predict the outcome of a China-Taiwan conflict.
What are intercontinental rail guns?
How sports teams that play each other in the same year can have different outcomes - and what this says about predictability.
Given all this, what’s the point of modelling exercises?

Mike's paper: https://www.brookings.edu/research/can-china-take-taiwan-why-no-one-really-knows/

My paper: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/E2BghQq9pwPgtHgiH/war-between-the-us-and-china-a-case-study-for-epistemic

Outro music: Battle Cry of Freedom by George Root https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4ZwyYJYbQ

Check out the Substack at ChinaTalk.media!

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Home Top podcasts Popular guests