BTC Sessions

This ALWAYS Is What Happens Right Before Bitcoin EXPLODES | James Check

33 snips
Nov 11, 2025
Guest
James Check
James Check, an on-chain Bitcoin analyst and founder of CheckOnChain, dives into this fascinating discussion about Bitcoin's unexpected market movements. He unpacks the paradox of a bear market amid rising prices, revealing how 63% of supply is above $95K—a potential risk factor. Check explains the 'great rotation' where institutions absorb old coin sell-offs, altering market structure. He also explores the shift from a four-year cycle to Bitcoin's evolution as a macro asset, making bold predictions of a 200K price target amid bullish selling dynamics.
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INSIGHT

Bear Market Paradox Explained

  • 2025 feels like a ‘modern bear’ because sentiment is bearish despite the market being up 7.8% YTD.
  • James Check finds this paradox shows heavy selling met by large, patient buyers absorbing supply.
INSIGHT

Top‑Heavy Cost Basis Risk

  • 63% of Bitcoin supply last transacted above ~$95K, creating a top-heavy market near that level.
  • A drop to the mid-80s could trigger rapid downside because few coins transacted there recently.
INSIGHT

Bullish Selling Phenomenon

  • James coins the term “bullish selling”: large volumes of old coins are being sold yet price holds.
  • That implies big buyers are absorbing supply and preventing deep drawdowns.
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