Options, Complex Dynamics & Price Discovery

Mentor Sessions Ep. 038: James Check on 2025 Bitcoin Bear Market Paradox, Great Rotation Bullish Selling, Cycle-Breaking Outlook & 200K Price Potential

Is Bitcoin in a "modern bear market" up 7.8% YTD despite massive $290B old coin sell-offs? On-chain expert James Check from CheckOnChain reveals why 2025 price action defies expectations, with 63% supply cost basis above 95K creating a "top-heavy" plunge risk to 80s—yet silent institutions absorb billions in "bullish selling" for a great rotation slingshot. In this BTC Sessions interview, Check breaks down paradoxical sentiment (Google Trends at all-time lows), why the 4-year cycle is dead as Bitcoin transitions to macro asset, derivatives shift (options now dominate futures for volatility explosions), treasury mania "smoldering ruins," AI bubble black swan printing trillions, and bull case for 150K fair value exploding to 200K+ fast. Essential Bitcoin price analysis for 2025: Bear firepower fails, sellers evaporate—stack now or get screwed? Don't miss this deep dive on on-chain data, macro traps, and why bears are "really, really wrong" for max pain upside.

Chapters:

00:00 Teaser & Intro

00:01:31 Bear Case Setup

00:02:35 Monthly Expectations Defied

00:03:11 UTXO Cost Basis Analysis

00:04:17 Bullish Selling Phenomenon

00:05:19 Bearish Sentiment Reasons

00:07:08 Institutional Buyers & Demand

00:09:03 Supply Side Indicators

00:10:55 Great Rotation Explained

00:12:18 IPO Moment Challenge

00:17:54 Future Growth & Capital Inflows

00:18:42 Bear Market Drawdown Risks

00:21:28 Psychological Hurdles Post-100K

00:25:24 New vs Old Bitcoiners Psychology

00:29:30 Broader Macro View

00:33:13 M2 Chart Dismissal

00:38:55 States Jumping In

00:42:02 Treasury Companies Mania

00:51:28 Derivatives Market Rundown

00:57:40 Black Swan Events & Bull Case

01:12:13 Outro & Plugs

About James Check:

On-chain Bitcoin analyst, founder of CheckOnChain newsletter—delivering data-driven insights on supply, sentiment, and market structure.

X.com: @_Checkmatey_

CheckOnChain: checkonchain.com

Check previous ep with Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/5oS4sop9t2Y

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