Rebel Capitalist News ADP Jobs Report Just Shocked The World
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Oct 2, 2025 The shock of a 32,000 drop in private payrolls sets the stage for a deep dive into the implications for the U.S. economy. There's a look at sector-specific job losses and how these changes might impact small businesses. The looming government shutdown raises concerns about missing crucial payroll data, while the political fallout for leaders is also explored. Historical parallels are drawn to past economic downturns, connecting current trends to recession signals. Market reactions unfold, highlighting shifts in expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve.
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ADP Shows Unexpected Job Loss
- The ADP private payrolls report showed a surprising seasonally adjusted decline of 32,000 jobs in September.
- This was the largest ADP drop since March 2023 and signals cooling private-sector hiring.
Revisions Can Flip The Story
- ADP revised August payrolls from +54,000 to -3,000 showing volatile revisions.
- Revisions can materially change the labor-market picture month to month.
ADP Moved Fed Cut Odds And Yields
- Markets quickly re-priced Fed-cut odds after the ADP miss, shifting near-certain odds toward a 25bp cut.
- Bond yields fell sharply then partially recovered, reflecting changing expectations about policy.