Know Your Risk Podcast

Trouble Lurking in Early July?

Jun 10, 2025
The hosts provide a lively market update from Puerto Vallarta, emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies. They discuss the puzzling performance of financial markets, noting gains amid declines in commodities, while cautioning against overconfidence. The conversation shifts to long-duration assets and the need for shorter strategies in uncertain times. They tackle the influences of immigration policy on wages and touch on the economic ramifications of high deficits and government accountability. Global market dynamics and recession impacts are also explored.
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INSIGHT

Risky Market Rally Insight

  • The current market rally lacks clear fundamental support, making it risky to bet against it now.
  • Valuations are absurdly high, but stepping in to short too soon can be costly.
INSIGHT

Tariff Risk Underestimated

  • Markets have priced out trade risks entirely, assuming all tariffs will stay at 10% or lower.
  • July dates when tariffs reconsiderations occur create vulnerability for market disruption.
ANECDOTE

Puerto Vallarta Growth Anecdote

  • Zach talks about Puerto Vallarta's growth with gated communities, golf courses, and affordable luxury homes.
  • This illustrates the migration trends tied to cost of living pressures in the US affecting investment allocation.
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