UBS On-Air: Market Moves Washington Weekly Podcast: Government shutdown, U.S. Drug Pricing
Oct 1, 2025
Shane Lieberman, a Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor at UBS, shares his insights on the current U.S. government shutdown and its broad implications. He discusses which services remain operational and the potential impact on federal paychecks. Shane also highlights the recent Oval Office announcement on drug pricing, particularly a deal with Pfizer that includes tariff relief in exchange for price reductions. He anticipates that other drugmakers may follow suit with similar agreements, stirring significant changes in the pharmaceutical landscape.
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Initial Impact Likely Contained, Risks Grow Over Time
- The shutdown's immediate effects are limited because critical payments and services continue for now.
- Larger disruption will appear if the shutdown lasts past the next federal pay cycle in two weeks.
Watch For A Short Reopen-And-Negotiate Window
- Expect negotiations to occur after lawmakers return from the holiday and over the coming days.
- Watch for a short-term reopening followed by a six-to-seven week window to finalize an agreement.
Health Care Likely To Drive Concessions
- Health care issues, especially Affordable Care Act tax credits, are likely bargaining chips.
- Republicans may concede on some ACA items but won't reverse major Medicaid policy goals.