How Much Bitcoin Do You Need to Retire by 2030? | Sminston With | BFM167

Jul 3, 2025

Sminston With, an anonymous engineer with a PhD in Materials Science, shares his insights on Bitcoin as a revolutionary money technology. He discusses why millennials should consider Bitcoin for retirement, highlighting its capped supply and decentralized nature. Sminston also presents a retirement guide, suggesting that building a Bitcoin stash of 2.4 to 4.81 could secure financial freedom by 2035. Listeners learn about navigating inflation, self-custody, and effective investment strategies for a stable future.

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INSIGHT

Bitcoin's Quantum Leap in Money

Bitcoin is a superior form of money due to its fixed supply and decentralized ledger.
This makes it a quantum leap over gold and fiat currencies, offering reliability and security.

INSIGHT

Retirement Guide Built on Power Law

The retirement guide is built on Bitcoin's power law adoption pattern for price growth.
It models spending needs with inflation to set realistic Bitcoin retirement targets.

ADVICE

Set Conservative Bitcoin Goals

Use the fifth percentile power law model to set conservative Bitcoin retirement goals.
This approach minimizes risk by ignoring volatile bubble extremes and focusing on reliable growth.

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Sminston With is an anonymous engineer with a PhD in Materials Science and Bitcoiner since 2021. He believes Bitcoin represents a quantum leap in money technology and has analyzed its long-term adoption patterns to create a retirement guide based on his calculations.

› Smitty’s Bitcoin Retirement Guide: https://x.com/sminston_with/status/1917605539279954391

PARTNERS

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PRODUCTS I ENDORSE

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🔔 SUBSCRIBE TO GET NOTIFIED

› YouTube: ⁠⁠https://youtube.com/@bramk⁠⁠

› Follow Bram on ⁠⁠https://x.com/bramk

🕑 TIMESTAMPS

00:00 - Introduction: Why Retire with Bitcoin

02:00 - Smitty’s Background and Engineering Approach

05:45 - What Makes Bitcoin a Quantum Leap in Money

08:55 - Why Millennials Should Retire with Bitcoin

12:15 - Understanding the Power Law and Bitcoin’s Predictability

16:20 - How the Bitcoin Retirement Guide Works

20:35 - Inflation and the Real Cost of Retirement

24:00 - Practical Example: $100K per Year Retirement Plan

27:30 - How Much Bitcoin You Need to Retire Early

31:20 - Why HODLing Through Volatility Matters

34:50 - The Decay Channel Model: Bubble Tops and Accumulation

38:40 - Diminishing Returns and the Window for Millennials

42:05 - Taxes, Caveats, and Real-World Planning

44:15 - Building Long-Term Conviction and Family Wealth

47:20 - Final Thoughts: A Core Belief to Never Let Go

ℹ️ EPISODE SUMMARY

Bram Kanstein and Smitty break down the real math behind Bitcoin’s $1 million growth path — and how to build a realistic Bitcoin retirement plan. They unpack Bitcoin’s long-term adoption patterns, the power law behind its predictable growth, and why stacking sats is the best defense against fiat inflation. You’ll learn how much Bitcoin you actually need to retire on $50K, $100K, or even $1M per year in real purchasing power. This is the ultimate Bitcoin Retirement Guide for anyone who wants to stop thinking in dollars and start thinking in Bitcoin.