DTC Podcast Bonus: How 600+ DTC Brands Are Navigating Q4 Uncertainty and Margin Pressure – Insights with Keen's Justin Jefferson
Jul 23, 2025
Justin Jefferson, VP of Strategy & Insights at Keen Decision Systems, shares his expertise on how over 600 DTC brands are facing Q4 uncertainty and margin pressures. He discusses the alarming fact that fewer than 7% of brands are confident in their forecasts and offers solutions to improve this. Jefferson emphasizes the pitfalls of reactive planning, the importance of scenario modeling for balancing short-term defense and long-term growth, and challenges the reliance on outdated ROAS metrics. His insights stress the value of disciplined investment and the need for agility in marketing strategies.
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Two Ways to Approach Uncertainty
- In uncertain markets, brands either pull back or double down to gain share.
- Zigging when others zag can yield cheaper, more effective top-of-funnel positioning during quiet times.
Use Contingency Models Strategically
- Build contingency models based on scenarios like category growth or decline.
- Plan spend and revenue goals per scenario to avoid knee-jerk reactions when conditions change.
Avoid Rearview Mirror Planning
- Relying on last year's data leads to diminishing returns amid changing competitive and promotional landscapes.
- Plans must reflect changes in timing and market factors, not just replicate the past year.