RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade
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Apr 25, 2025 Recent discussions highlight Trump’s retreat from firing Powell, hinting at a more stable Fed leadership. The analysis digs into trade negotiations, particularly U.S.-China dynamics, amidst gradual growth concerns. Tactical indicators for navigating the bond market are unveiled, showcasing strategies influenced by current economic conditions. Notably, the podcast also sheds light on U.S.-India trade relations and their implications on manufacturing, as well as the looming impact of upcoming employment data.
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Risks of Firing Powell
- Firing Fed Chair Powell was unlikely and could have backfired politically for Trump.
- Nomination of Kevin Warsh could be riskier due to his consistent hawkish stance.
Economic Slowdown Signals
- Survey data shows declining business investment intentions and rising housing inventory.
- Trade uncertainty is slowing outbound shipments from China to the US, with lagging actual tariff impacts.
Trade Talks and Challenges
- Both US and China prefer to avoid economic disruption and want tariff reductions.
- Durable trade agreement is challenging due to mistrust and China's economic policies.