Squirrel, an expert in adversarial perspectives, teams up with Jeffrey to explore how to tackle overly specific directives. They dive into Goodhart's Law, revealing how metrics can backfire when misused, illustrated by a pizza delivery case. The duo emphasizes the need for deeper insights into customer interactions and the significance of effective communication practices, like briefing and back-briefing, to enhance trust. With engaging examples from military history and economics, they encourage listeners to think critically about their business objectives.
Adversarial analysis encourages organizations to assess risks by considering how objectives might be exploited for undesirable outcomes.
The importance of contextual clarity in communication is emphasized, fostering psychological safety to enable constructive discussions about potential pitfalls.
Deep dives
Understanding Adversarial Analysis
Adversarial analysis is a technique used to assess objectives within organizations by viewing them through a lens of potential failure and malicious intent. This approach encourages stakeholders to consider what could go wrong when ambitious goals, such as achieving a 100% success rate, are set without sufficient context or constraints. By envisioning an 'adversary'—a hypothetical entity that could exploit weaknesses in a system—businesses can uncover otherwise overlooked risks. This method also helps in shifting the focus from merely achieving targets to understanding and managing the underlying interests at play within the organization.
The Pitfalls of Simplicity in Objectives
Simplistic objectives can lead to unintended consequences, particularly when they are framed without adequate consideration of their ramifications. For example, a directive such as 'never fail on a transaction' may intuitively seem beneficial, but it risks the acceptance of fraudulent or unwanted orders, ultimately leading to financial loss. The discussion highlights the challenges that arise when success metrics become targets, as exemplified by Goodhart's law, which states that a measure loses its effectiveness once it becomes a target. By considering adversarial scenarios, organizations can identify these distortions and adjust their goals to promote a more holistic understanding of success.
Communicating with Clarity and Intent
Effective communication of objectives within organizations often suffers when leaders fail to provide clear and appropriate context for their directives. The podcast underscores the importance of utilizing adversarial analysis to bridge the gap between organizational goals and actionable strategies. This technique encourages richer conversations among team members, allowing them to explore deeper underlying interests rather than merely executing orders. Cultivating a culture of psychological safety and trust is crucial, enabling team members to engage in constructive discussions about potential pitfalls without fearing backlash, ultimately leading to better alignment and more sustainable outcomes.
Squirrel describes how he tells clients to handle overly specific, too-coherent directions: consider what an adversary would do to comply with the direction and still get bad results. He and Jeffrey discuss illustrative examples and applications from military history, economics, and pizza delivery.
SHOW LINKS:
- Little Bobby Drop Tables: https://xkcd.com/327/
- Goodhart’s Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart's_law
- Pizza Arbitrage: https://www.readmargins.com/p/doordash-and-pizza-arbitrage
- Art of Action, Briefing and Back-briefing: https://www.stephenbungay.com/Books.ink
- Podcast episode, Briefing and Back-Briefing: https://soundcloud.com/troubleshootingagile/briefing-and-back-briefing
- Podcast episode, Scoring Your Briefing and Back-Briefing: https://soundcloud.com/troubleshootingagile/scoring-briefing-and-back-briefing
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