Switched On Surplus for Many, Strain for a Few Transition Metals
Dec 18, 2025
Kwasi Ampofo, Head of Metals and Mining at BloombergNEF, dives into the seismic shifts within global metals markets. He reveals how forecasts switched from shortages to surpluses, driven by rapid project buildouts and innovation. The discussion highlights the implications of lower battery costs on manufacturers and the growing importance of metals like lithium, cobalt, and manganese. Kwasi emphasizes copper's critical role and upcoming supply gaps, while also addressing China's aluminum production caps and their environmental motivations.
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Surplus Replaced Many Expected Shortages
- Most transition metals moved from expected deficits to balanced markets due to rapid supply build-out.
- Mining projects are getting developed far faster than traditional 10-year timelines, sometimes in three years.
Conference Drinks Reveal Industry Mood
- Kwasi uses mining-conference drink service as a mood proxy: water when prices are low, champagne when high.
- He contrasts that with battery conferences where low input prices mean celebratory moods downstream.
Battery Flexibility Won't Last As EVs Scale
- Battery makers quickly pivot chemistries, which reduces demand pressure for some mined metals.
- That early-stage flexibility will decline as EV production scales, locking in longer-term metal needs.