China Reacts to Trump’s Election, With Zoe Liu (Transition 2025, Episode 7)
Dec 17, 2024
auto_awesome
Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR, offers keen insights into how China is reacting to Trump's election. She discusses the potential impacts on U.S.-China economic relations and the complexities of diplomatic communication. Zoe highlights the tensions around trade tariffs and China's pivotal role in critical mineral supply chains. Additionally, she explores shared economic challenges like inflation and wage stagnation in both nations, emphasizing urgent reforms needed to align growth with citizen welfare.
China views Trump's election with apprehension, anticipating renewed tensions in trade and technology while recognizing his unpredictability.
The current economic model in China faces challenges, prompting policymakers to seek reforms that enhance domestic consumption and sustainable growth.
Deep dives
Beijing's Reaction to Trump's Election
Beijing's response to Donald Trump's election is marked by a mix of unsurprise and discontent. The Biden administration had previously stabilized U.S.-China relations by reducing uncertainties, while Trump's return signifies a shift back to unpredictability. Additionally, Trump's focus on trade and technology tensions during his first term left lingering apprehension in China, as these areas remain contentious and unresolved. Consequently, the prospect of a second Trump presidency leads Chinese officials to brace for renewed confrontations on these critical issues.
The Trump Administration's China Team
The composition of Trump's team is perceived by China as largely hawkish, particularly with figures like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, known for their tough stances on China. Initial market reactions suggest a degree of calm despite apprehensions about potential policy directions. While there is recognition in Beijing of Trump's unpredictability and tendency to prioritize personal engagement over conventional diplomatic channels, many anticipate that practical measures will need to be resolved for effective engagement. However, ongoing sanctions against figures like Rubio highlight the complexities in navigating these relationships.
Economic Challenges and Opportunities for China
China faces significant economic challenges stemming from a reliance on export-oriented growth and insufficient domestic consumption. There is a growing recognition that the current economic model, which has historically driven rapid growth, is now dragging on progress as households save rather than spend. Chinese policymakers see potential opportunities in addressing these structural flaws, particularly amid rising trade protectionism from the U.S. and other countries. Thus, this period may serve as a pivotal moment for internal reforms that prioritize domestic consumption and sustainable economic growth.
Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Senior Fellow for China Studies at CFR, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how Trump’s victory is being viewed in China and what his presidency will mean for the future of U.S.-China economic relations. This episode is the seventh in a special TPI series on the U.S. 2025 presidential transition and is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.