Lizzy McNeill, a reporter specializing in data analysis for news stories, joins the discussion to unravel the sharp increase in disability benefit claims in the UK, particularly post-pandemic. She highlights the impact of mental health issues and the cost of living crisis on this trend. The conversation also tackles controversial comparisons between the UK's and Russia's handling of free speech, emphasizing the need for accurate data. Additionally, they explore the deterioration of important statistical sources which complicate understanding societal trends.
The surge in disability benefit claims from 2 million to 2.9 million is largely attributed to increased mental health issues post-pandemic.
Comparisons between the UK and Russia regarding imprisonment for social media posts reveal misleading narratives about freedom of expression.
Deep dives
Rising Costs of Health-Related Benefits
Health-related benefits for working-age individuals in the UK have significantly increased, with costs climbing from £36 billion in 2019-2020 to £48 billion in the last financial year. This reflects a roughly one-third rise in expenditure, with the increase attributed to a surge in claimants for both disability and incapacity benefits. Evidence shows that in England and Wales, claims for disability benefits have risen from 2 million to 2.9 million, while incapacity benefits have increased from 2.1 million to 3 million between 2019 and 2024. The reasons behind these rising claims remain unclear, leading to various hypotheses, including the potential impacts of the ongoing cost of living crisis and the ramifications of the pandemic on overall mental and physical health.
Mental Health Crisis and Claims
Data indicates a significant rise in claimants for disability benefits due to mental health issues, comprising over half of the increases seen since the pandemic. This change follows a notable 36% increase in the number of people accessing NHS mental health services post-2019, highlighting the growing challenges surrounding mental health among the population. Young people in particular have shown a sharper increase in claims, with statistics revealing that a 20-year-old today is as likely to claim these benefits as a 39-year-old was in 2019. The overall trend suggests not only a rise in claims due to mental health concerns but also an increasing prevalence of such issues within all age groups.
Misinterpretations of Social Media Arrests
Claims have circulated suggesting that the UK imprisons more individuals for social media posts than Russia, but these assertions lack clarity and accuracy. While it is true that numerous arrests have been made in the UK for online malicious communications, these do not equate to imprisonment for mere expression of thought. In contrast, the figures from Russia refer to criminal proceedings against individuals for significant political issues, thereby showcasing a stark disparity in the nature of these cases. Reports from organizations like Freedom House further emphasize that freedom of expression is considerably more restricted in Russia than in the UK, reinforcing the misleading nature of such comparisons.
More working age people are claiming disability benefits. What's driving the trend?
Is it true that the UK imprisons more people for their social media posts than Russia does?
One of the country’s most important data sources has been falling apart. We find out why.
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producer: Nathan Gower
Series producers: Charlotte McDonald and Tom Colls
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: James Beard
Editor: Richard Vadon
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
