Dominique Toublan, Head of Credit Strategy at Barclays and a former physicist, discusses the dynamics of the credit market as the U.S. election approaches. He analyzes the impact of macroeconomic challenges and global demand for U.S. spread products. Touching on credit derivatives, he highlights how a scientific approach aids in navigating market complexities. Dominque also shares insights on risk management, emphasizing lessons from past market crises, and explores the rise of algorithm-driven trading in credit markets.
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question_answer ANECDOTE
Market Reactions
Dominique Toublan witnessed a silent trading floor in 2007 when treasury yields moved by five basis points.
He recalls the credit crisis and how people reacted, shaping his understanding of risk and scenario analysis.
insights INSIGHT
Election Impact on Credit
Credit spreads and implied volatility mirrored equity markets around the US election, influenced by potential delays in results.
Post-election, a "red sweep" was viewed favorably, boosting credit sectors like banks and energy, similar to equities.
insights INSIGHT
Credit Spread Drivers
Global demand for US credit is driven by yield, not spread levels, attracting investors like Taiwan life insurers.
This differs from CDX, dominated by CTA and macro investors using it for liquidity and tactical trades.
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While the SPX has enjoyed a banner year in 2024, a series of risk events have mattered, including the August 5th spike in the VIX and option pricing uncertainty into the US election. Credit spreads have generally behaved in benign fashion, however. What will 2025 bring for the world of credit and what risks should we pay attention to? With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Dominique Toublan to the Alpha Exchange. Now the Head of Credit Strategy at Barclays, Dom landed on a credit derivatives desk in 2007. With a deep background in physics, Dom quickly saw that while derivative products may utilize some of the complex equations that underpin the physical sciences, markets are prone to episodes of disorder with unpredictable outcomes.
Our conversation first considers the behavior of macro credit products in the period before and after US Election. Here, Dom shares that the same vol premium observed in equity options was visible in both credit spreads and credit implied vol as well. In the aftermath of the Election, Dom sees strong, ongoing demand for US spread product with a global buyer base looking less at whether spreads are wide or tight but for all-in yield, pointing to Taiwan life insurance companies for example. In evaluating the risk premium of credit spreads, Dom argues that while valuations are a bit tight, ongoing inflows should continue to support the market. Acknowledging there are some macro headwinds, he doesn’t see them as strong enough to be disruptive.
Lastly, we talk about the progress made in gaining credit exposure through a systematic, factor-based approach. Dom sees this as an exciting time of product development, calling it the equitification of credit. With considerably more data now available and with the advent of credit ETFs, the market has embraced portfolio trading, greatly facilitating risk transfer. Along with this, the credit market is incorporating the principles of factor exposure, long a part of the equity market.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dominque Toublan.
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