Macro Mondays Are AI Stocks in Danger?
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Dec 15, 2025 Dive into a discussion on market sell-offs spurred by tech and AI stock fears. Explore Oracle's cash flow and CAPEX decisions influencing AI investments. Unpack the implications of the latest jobs data, as well as private credit trends signaling liquidity improvements. Curious about Bitcoin? Discover its cyclical relationship with liquidity dynamics. Plus, learn about Japan's involvement with US Treasuries, the dollar's outlook amidst global growth shifts, and the potential for a holiday market rally.
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Sell-Off Driven By AI Positioning, Not Fed
- Markets sold off despite a dovish Fed because AI-related positioning and liquidity fears persisted.
- Andreas Steno Larsen thinks these tech/AI stresses may take a few weeks to fade as optimism into the open quickly evaporated.
CapEx Explains Oracle's Cash Flow Disconnect
- Heavy CapEx can depress free cash flow while net income lags due to depreciation timing.
- Andreas Steno Larsen views Oracle's negative free cash flow as a growth-CapEx pattern, worrying only if the investments fail to deliver returns.
Anticipate A Lower-Than-Consensus CPI
- Expect the CPI release to potentially surprise lower because the nowcast points to inflation dipping below 3%.
- Treat the report as higher-uncertainty due to it effectively covering two months of data in one release.