Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes Predictions and Reckonings: From 2025 to 2026
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Jan 2, 2026 In a lively discussion, Jeremy Shapiro, the research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins to assess past predictions and forecast a turbulent 2026. They examine Trump’s impactful return to politics and its chaos. Key highlights include predictions about the rise of the European far right and the potential for an uneasy ceasefire in Ukraine. Shapiro also anticipates a new US-Iran deal resembling the JCPOA and warns of growing sovereign debt issues in the global south. Tune in for a deep dive into 2026's geopolitical landscape!
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Trump Dominates Global Agenda
- Donald Trump's return reshaped global diplomacy as other governments adjusted to his chaotic style.
- Jeremy Shapiro and Mark Leonard note that 2025 became a year dominated by reactive policies to Trump's presidency.
German Coalition Masks Big Fiscal Shift
- Germany formed another grand coalition but also reformed its constitution affecting the debt brake and future defense spending.
- Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro argue this signals meaningful long-term shifts despite short-term continuity.
Chaos Conceals Democratic Erosion
- The Trump era diverted public attention from deeper democratic erosion in the U.S. to daily scandals and policy shocks.
- The hosts warn that visible chaos can obscure longer-term institutional decline.
